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I took 300 Trades to find the BEST Reward/Risk Ratio | 1X vs 1.5X vs 2X Forex Day Trading

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date March 10, 2021
1 Comment on I took 300 Trades to find the BEST Reward/Risk Ratio | 1X vs 1.5X vs 2X Forex Day Trading

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I took 300 trades to find the best reward risk ratio in trading so you don’t have to. Imagine that there is Bill the first who bets that the coin will land on heads. Then there is Bill the second, who bets that coin will land on tails. If the coin does land on the heads, Bill the first receives 10 dollars. And if he loses the bet, Bill the first has to give 10 dollars out of his own pocket.

When they flip the coin, it lands on tails. Since it landed on tails, bill the first has to pay 10 dollars. Bill the first is not going home with a loss, so they flip the coin again, and this time, the coin actually lands on the heads and Bill makes 10 dollars. In this example, Bill the first is risking the same amount that he is going to make if he wins. In other words, the reward risk ratio is 1.

Now, we all know that the probability of a fair coin landing on heads is 50 percent. So in the long run, Bill the first is not losing money, but he is also not going to make money.

Now let’s say the coin is not fair. Let’s say the coin is bent a little, and if you flip it, it has a higher chance of landing on heads. Let’s say the probability of this rigged coin landing on heads is 60 percent. Now if Bill the first bets on heads with a 1 to 1 Reward risk ratio, he will most likely make money in the long run. In this scenario, Bill the First has an edge. Or in other words, Bill the first has a high win rate.

But let’s say he didn’t have an edge. Let’s say it’s a fair coin, the probability of winning is 50 percent. But this time, Bill the first receives 20 dollars if he is right, and if he is wrong, Bill the first only loses 10 dollars. And as you can already tell, in this scenario, Bill the first is most likely going to make a profit in the long run, because he is winning more than the potential risk. In other words, the reward risk ratio is 2 to 1 with a 50 percent win rate.

In the first scenario, the edge was the high win rate. And in the second scenario, the edge was the high reward risk ratio.

In the Forex and Stock Market, we look for an edge that will make us money in the long run. But in reality, Forex and Stock Market are not like a coin toss. Here, if you increase your reward risk ratio, the win rate goes down. And if you try to increase the win rate, the reward risk ratio goes down. But it’s not always that simple. Since the very first video on the Trading Rush Channel, I have been recommending and using a 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio while testing strategies 100 times. Most trading strategies got a good win rate and made good money after 100 trades. But what would have happened if we had used a 2 to 1, or a 1 to 1 reward risk ratio? Will we make more money if we mess with the reward risk ratios? What is the best reward risk ratio?

To find out, I took 300 trades, and here’s what happened.

If you are a subscriber of the Trading Rush Channel, you probably remember the Schaff Trend Cycle trading strategy. If you come to the Official Trading Rush Website, you will notice that it ranks fifth from the top, just above the Ichimoku Cloud, and below the MACD and Stochastic Trading Strategy.

When I tested that trading strategy 100 times, I took 100 trades with a 1.5 to 1 reward risk. So we have that data, and already know that with a 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio, the Schaff Trend Cycle Trading Strategy gets approximately a 50 percent win rate, and in the Trading Rush App, it made a profit of 2500. Now keep this number in mind for a moment.

And now, let’s test that strategy again with a 2 to 1 reward risk ratio, and again with a 1 to 1 reward risk ratio, to see if the end profit is more than 2500.

So first, I took 100 trades with the 2 to 1 reward risk ratio, and here’s what happened.

Number 1. Now Schaff Trend Cycle is a profitable trading strategy, so we are expecting the profit graph in the Trading Rush App to go in an upward direction. And as you can see, the profit line made higher swing highs and looked very similar to an up-trending Forex and Stock chart. Since we increased the reward risk ratio, we are expecting the win rate to fall. And as you can see, in the end, the Schaff Trend Cycle with a 2 to 1 reward risk ratio, got an approximate win rate of 42 percent. We will compare and talk about the profit number in a moment.

But now, let’s test the Schaff Trend Cycle strategy with a 1 to 1 reward risk ratio.

This time, since we reduced the profit potential per trade, we are expecting the win rate to increase. The profit graph went in an upward direction, but it was not looking good as the profit graph of the 2 to 1 reward risk ratio. When we took 2 times more profit, the winning trade covered 2 losing trades. But here, since we are winning the same amount as the potential loss, the profit line was going in the sideways direction sometimes. But since we know Schaff Trend Cycle works, we were expecting the overall trend to go up, and it did. The Schaff Trend Cycle with a 1 to 1 reward risk ratio, got an approximate win rate of 55 percent.

And now, if we compare the three reward risk ratios side by side, you will notice that the win rate with a 2 to 1 reward risk ratio was 42 percent, which is 8 percent lower than the win rate we got with the 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio. And, the win rate with a 1 to 1 reward risk ratio, was only 5 percent higher than the win rate we got with a 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio.

But that’s not the interesting part! What’s interesting is that the profit with a 2 to 1 reward risk ratio, was only 100 dollars more than the profit made with a 1.5 to 1 reward ratio. But on the other hand, the profit with 1 to 1 reward risk ratio, was only 1000 dollars, which is 1500 dollars less than the profit we made with the 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio.

So what is going on here? We were expecting the profit to be a little different, but the profit 1 to 1 reward risk ratio achieved is a lot different than we expected.

On paper, we expect the win rate to go down and go up if we increase and decrease the reward risk ratio respectively. But in reality, since most of us trade in the direction of the trend, and since in the previous video, we created the Schaff Trend Cycle strategy as a trend following strategy, what’s happening is, reward risk ratios like 2 to 1 and 1.5 to 1, are more likely to capture that good price move in the entry direction. That’s because, in a trend, the price has a higher probability to keep moving further in the direction of the trend unless there is no roadblock. 1 to 1 reward risk ratio on the other hand, is missing out on these big moves by taking profits off the table early. Remember that all 300 trades were taken on the same market structure. But the 2 to 1 and 1.5 to 1 ratio made money more consistently than the 1 to 1 ratio, and their profits graphs looked very similar.

The 2 to 1 reward risk ratio didn’t make a lot more money than the 1.5 to 1 ratio, was because price doesn’t make a big move every single time.

So what’s the conclusion? If the trend is really strong, or you are expecting a strong move in one direction, it is a good idea to use the 2 to 1 reward risk ratio. If you have doubts about your entry or the trend is not good, it is a good idea to use the 1 to 1 reward risk ratio to increase the win rate. And since the 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio had a good win rate and made a good profit, it is a good idea to use a 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio in a good trend.

Now, remember that even though 1 to 1 reward risk ratio didn’t make a good profit in the end, doesn’t mean you should completely avoid it. If you have watched some of the live trading videos or are supporting the Trading Rush Channel on Patreon, you know how I use a lower reward risk ratio like 1 to 1, to increase the chances of winning when the market is not good.

I did a similar test a long time ago, and after finding out that the 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio is the sweet spot, I have used it to this day. And if you are a subscriber of the Trading Rush Channel, you already know that I have used the 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio since the very first video on this channel. In fact, I already knew the approximate win rates of most trading strategies I have tested on the Trading Rush channel

because I also tested them many years ago. Except for the Donchian Channel. Donchian Channel Trading Strategy was a surprise. It got a very high win rate of approximately 58 percent, which is very close to the highest win rate trading strategy we have tested.

If you want to see that high win rate strategy or want to see win rates of more trading strategies, subscribe to the Trading Rush Channel and ring the notification bell. After all, you don’t want to risk your money with something that doesn’t work in the long run. Support the Channel on Patreon to get Trade Opportunity Signals, and to see In-Depth Trade Analysis. Thanks for watching.

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I made the BEST Moving Average that Disappears in Range Market – Forex Day Trading Strategies

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date March 7, 2021

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This is a moving average, but it is not your average moving average. This moving average tries to disappear in the range market, so you won’t lose money when the price is moving in the sideways direction. I have tested a lot of Trading Strategies 100 Times at this point. From MACD to MACD combined with Ichimoku. Most of the strategies had a profitable win rate, some of them even had a win rate of around 60 percent, but many of them lost money in the range market. When we taught my computer to take trades on its own, I created the Beep Boop indicator for fun, but after testing it 100 times, it actually was one of the better indicators we have seen on the Trading Rush Channel. So what if we create our very own indicator or a moving average, that will filter or disappear in the range market? Will the win rate of the trading strategy go up? In this video, I took 200 trades with 2 different strategies in an attempt to create the best moving average, and here’s what happened.

(FREE) Trading Rush Moving Average : https://www.patreon.com/posts/trading-rush-52806962

But why though? Why do we want a moving average that will disappear when the market is in a range? Well, look at this example. Here, price is in an uptrend, and we all know that one of the best places to buy in the Forex and Stock Market, is when the price is in an uptrend. Most of the long trades you are going to take in this uptrend have a higher probability of winning, well because the price has a higher probability of moving in the direction of the trend. This is the range, and if you are a subscriber of the Trading Rush Channel, you have probably seen multiple strategies get bad win rates because they gave too many entry signals in the range market. You can make money when the market is moving in the sideways direction, but beginner traders are not recommended to, because trading here is much easier and better than trading in a range market where the price can get choppy.

So how do we actually filter the range market? Even your dog knows that in a range market, the price stays between two areas, and, if you plot a long-term moving average, the price will cross the moving average multiple times. So wait a minute, in a range market, if the price crosses the moving average multiple times in a short time period, and the price stays on one side of the moving average in a trending market, can’t we just tell the moving average to disappear when the price crosses the moving average multiple times in a short period of time? Well, that’s exactly what I did. I created a 200-period moving average, that tries to disappear if it detects the range market.

Look at this example, when the price was in a good uptrend, the moving average color was green. When the price started to move in a sideways direction, the Trading Rush moving average disappeared. And when the price started to trend again, the moving average turned green again.

When there is a good downtrend going on, the moving average will turn red. And if the Trading Rush moving average detects a range market, it will disappear so you won’t take trades and lose money in the sideways market.

This example is even better. Here, the Trading Rush Moving Average was green in an uptrend, then turned red in a downtrend, and when the price was moving in the sideways direction, the Trading Rush Moving Average Disappeared. And then reappeared when it detected an uptrend.

Does this mean we have successfully created the best moving average that filters the range market on its own? What will happen if we test a trading strategy 100 times, with a normal 200 period moving average, and test the same strategy again, but this time with a moving average that disappears? Well, why don’t we find out?

First of all, to test the Trading Rush Moving Average 100 times, we will need a Trading Strategy. I have tested many different trading strategies 100 times on the Trading Rush Channel, but if I use them, the videos will look similar, and youtube will send a love letter asking me to delete the videos, again. So, I created a new Trading Strategy just for this video. If you are a subscriber of the Trading Rush Channel, you have probably heard about the Beep Boop indicator that we created in the AI trades video. Beep Boop Trading Strategy was a profitable trading strategy. So I combined the Beep Boop Indicator with the Bollinger Bands Indicator, and created a new trading strategy for this video, that goes something like this.

If the price is above the 200 period moving average, buy when the beep boop indicator gives a buy entry signal, only if the closing price of the entry candle is above the Bollinger bands. Set the stoploss below the pullback.

Similarly, if the price is below the 200 period moving average, sell when beep boop indicator gives a sell entry signal, only if the closing price of the entry candle is below the Bollinger bands. Set the stoploss above the pullback.

If you don’t know anything about the Beep Boop Trading Strategy, check out the “I taught my computer to trade” video, or the video after that to learn more.

Now we have a trading strategy, but we don’t know its normal win rate yet. To see if the Trading Rush Moving Average can improve the Winrate of a trading strategy, we will have to test the trading strategy with a normal moving average first. Once we find the normal win rate, we will test the strategy again with the Trading Rush Moving Average, to see if the win rate improves or not.

So I took 100 trades with the normal moving average, and here’s what happened.

The profit in the Trading Rush App went up, then came down, and then went up. When we tested the Beep Boop and Bollinger Bands Trading Strategies on the Trading Rush Channel, we saw both of them made money at the end. And after combining both strategies, the profit graph still went in the upward direction. And the win rate I got with the normal moving average was approximately 45 percent, which is still a profitable win rate because of the 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio. In the Trading Rush App, the strategy with a normal moving average made a profit of 1250.

Now let’s see if the Trading Rush Moving Average can increase the win rate of the Trading Strategy.

So I took another 100 trades with the disappearing moving average, and this happened.

At the start, the profit in the Trading Rush App went up, then came down, and then went up. But this time, the profit was more consistent, and more trades were won than lost. When the Trading Rush Moving Average disappeared, many false trades were filtered, and that’s exactly what we designed it to do. If you remember, near the start of this video, I showed you an example of the Trading Rush Moving Average. The trades in that example were taken with the Beep Boop and Bollinger Bands strategy. As you can see, when the Trading Rush Moving Average was green, more long trades were won than lost. And when the moving average was red in color, more short trades were won than lost. That makes sense because the price has a higher probability of moving in the direction of the trend. But when the price started to move in a really bad range, no trades were lost or won, because the moving average disappeared. We all know that most strategies give false signals in a range market, but because the Trading Rush Moving Average filtered the range market, the win rate at the end was actually higher.

If we compare the results side by side, you will see that the win rate with the Trading Rush Moving Average was 5 percent higher. Now 5 percent doesn’t sound that high, but remember that both of them were tested in the same market structure, and if you look at the profit graph and profit numbers, you will notice that profit with the Trading Rush Moving Average was 100 percent more than the profit got with the normal moving average. Furthermore, the profit graph with the Trading Rush Moving Average is more consistently going up than the profit graph of the normal moving average.

So how can you try the Trading Rush Moving Average for free? and what’s the conclusion? Well, this was an attempt to create a moving average that can increase the win rate of our trading strategies by filtering the bad market. I think we all succeeded at that part. The best part I like about the moving average is that it filters a lot of false signals in the range-market. While creating and testing this indicator, I noticed that it does a fantastic job at disappearing when the market is in a really bad range, or in other words, when the markets are not worth trading. So if you want to try the disappearing Trading Rush Moving Average for absolutely free, I will publicly share the source code on the Trading Rush Patreon Page, just like I did with the beep boop indicator. The link to the indicator will be in the description. If you are watching this video on the Official Trading Rush Website, the link to the indicator should be just below the video. In the next video, we will try to improve the trading strategy even more, by improving the disappearing moving average a bit more.

So Subscribe and ring that notification bell to see that, and to see win rates of other trading strategies that we have tested 100 times. After all, you don’t want to risk your money on a strategy that doesn’t even work. Like the video if you liked it. Support Trading Rush on Patreon to see in-depth trade analysis, and for trade opportunity signals. Thanks a lot for watching.

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5 min BEST Momentum Day Trading Strategy that I made MONEY with

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date March 3, 2021
1 Comment on 5 min BEST Momentum Day Trading Strategy that I made MONEY with

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What is the Best Day Trading Strategy? This is Bill the first, and this is bill’s cat. Bill the first is standing on the First floor, and Bill’s cat is on the ground floor. Bill wants to call the cat upstairs to watch his favorite show Tom and Jerry. So to call his cat, Bill the first says “cat noises!?”. “Sure man, will be right there!” Bill’s cat replies. After hearing those noises, the cat wants to go upstairs. Between Bill and Bill’s cat, there are some big stairs. Bill’s cat jumps on the first stair, then gathers the energy to jump on the second stair. After jumping on the second stair, Bill the cat rests for a while, and then jumps to the third stair, and so on. When Cat was on the first stair, it gathered energy and used her paws to gain upward momentum. Since the cat is not a Space X rocket, it loses its upward momentum fairly quickly. When the upward momentum is lost, the downward momentum is increased because gravity and Bill’s Cat lands perfectly on the second stair. Then everything happens again, the cat gains momentum, and then loses momentum, gains momentum, and loses momentum. But even though the cat is losing the upward momentum, it is still going in the upward direction to watch Tom and Jerry. The stock market and Forex Market you trade is like Bill’s Cat. No, it does not go higher to watch Tom and Jerry. But when it does go in the upward direction, it will move very similar to Bill’s Cat movement in this example. If we remove the stair, the cat, and Bill itself, you will notice that this line looks very similar to an up-trending market.

When the price is in an uptrend, there will be an upward momentum, then the price will lose its upward momentum and will start to come down. But here’s the thing, if the price is really in a good uptrend, there is a high probability that the size of the downward move will be smaller than the upward move. Now keep this in mind for a moment, and watch Bill the first throw a ball. When Bill the first throws a ball from the top of the stairs, it bounces and gains an upward momentum. But this time, when the upward momentum is lost, the ball finds support lower than the previous point. The ball keeps finding support at a new lower point with every bounce. And you can probably tell that movement of the ball falling from the top of the stairs, is very similar to a downtrend in the Forex and Stock Market.

Now here’s the Momentum Day Trading Strategy that I use to make money when the stock market opens.

You see, in the Forex and Stock Market, there are times when price makes a very big move in one direction in just one or few candles. These moves are usually caused by news, events, or by a breakout of an important price level. In the stock market, big one-sided moves are really common and easy to spot. Few minutes after the stock market opens, you can find the stocks that made a big move in one direction by looking at the top gainers and losers of the day. If you find a stock that made a big move after a gap open, it’s even better. Because when a stock opens with an unexpected gap, there is a lot of buying and selling activity at the market open. Here’s what it looks like. On this stock chart, the price opened with a gap up. It opened above a resistance level. When the price was below resistance, traders who took a short position, probably set their stop loss just above the resistance area. But when the price opened with a gap up, they were suddenly in a more than expected loss. Since they shorted the stock, they have to buy to close the position. And when they will buy to close, it will create even more buying pressure. The traders who wanted to go long will also go long after seeing the price above the resistance area.

When this happens, in other words, when price makes a big move in one direction, I like to enter a long position near the end of the first pullback after the big upward move. How do we find the end of the pullback in setups like these? Well, there are different methods for Stocks and different methods while trading Forex, that’s because Forex charts have more market noise on smaller time frames than the Stock Charts in my experience.

In the stock market, I trade momentum strategies on timeframes like 5 mins, and once I see a strong upward momentum like this, I like to wait for a few weak red candles to form, and enter at the first green candle that closes above the previous red candle.

For example, here, a big green candle appeared indicating a temporary buying pressure. We want to buy while the buying pressure is still there, but we are not going to buy at the top of this upward move. We will wait for a few red candles to form. In this example, two red candles appeared. And when the first green candle closes above the previous red candle, in this case, that is right here, we take a long trade. When taking a trade like this, I like to set the stop loss below the entry candle and a 1 to 1 reward risk ratio profit target. Since this trade is to capture some of this upward momentum, a tighter stop loss with a 1 to1 reward risk ratio gets me a very high win rate. I think I mentioned in one of the videos last year, that I got multiple green days in a row just by trading with momentum like this. Furthermore, I have made live trading videos trading exactly like this on the Trading Rush Channel. Check it out to see a live example.

Now since Forex Market on the smaller time frames like 5 mins is a bit noisy, I prefer using a momentum indicator like MACD. MACD Trading Strategy was one of the profitable trading strategies, that got more than 60 percent win rate when we tested 100 times. But if you remember, in the follow-up MACD video, I explained how MACD works, with a cat example just like I did in this video. If you have watched that video, you already know how to use the MACD, to find the change in momentum and the proper end of the pullbacks. Check out that video if you have not already, and subscribe to the Trading Rush Channel while you are at it because then you will also get to see win rates of other trading strategies like Bollinger Bands and RSI that we tested 100 times because you don’t want to use a strategy that doesn’t work.

If you don’t want to trade with a tight below the entry candle stop-loss as I do, you can trade like this. Here’s a Forex example, and as you can see, the price has made a good move up. Since there is more market noise in the Forex Market, when the price gives a weak pullback, instead of buying when the green candle closes higher than the previous red candle, we can instead use a momentum indicator like the MACD, and enter when it shows the momentum change, and set the stop loss below the pullback. Again, I have made a detailed video on the Best Part About the MACD Indicator.

Now, if you want to trade the momentum, you have to remember that you want to trade the momentum. Here’s what I mean.

Here, the price opened with a gap down and even went in a downward direction. But then some big green candles were formed indicating a buying pressure. This is not a good setup, because these green candles are indicating an upward momentum, which is not something we need while looking to go short.

When I trade the momentum, in a long setup, I like the first few candles to be big green candles, followed by small red candles indicating a weak pullback. Furthermore, the pullback should end in the top 50 percent of the initial upward move. Similarly, in a short setup, I like the first few candles to be big red candles, followed by small green candles indicating a weak pullback. And in a short setup, the pullback should not cross 50 percent of the initial downward move.

There are more momentum trading strategies for situations like price going in the opposite direction etc. But they need a separate video, and maybe another cat example. So Like the video if you liked it. Subscribe to the Trading Rush Channel and ring the notification bell, to see that momentum video, and to see win rates of many different trading strategies that we have tested 100 times. Support Trading Rush on Patreon, and see In-depth trade analysis and get Trade Opportunity Signals. Thanks for watching!

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I took 100 Trades with FASTEST Moving Average Trading Strategy and this happened… HMA Strategy

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date March 1, 2021

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Is the Hull moving average better than a normal moving average? What will be the win rate of the hull moving average trading strategy? In this video I took 100 trades with the Hull moving average Trading Strategy, and here’s what happened. If you have been trading even for a little while, chances are you have probably heard about the simple moving average and the exponential moving average. And if you are a subscriber of the Trading Rush Channel, you already know the win rate of the Moving Average Trading Strategy. On the Trading Rush Channel, we tested both, Simple moving average, and exponential moving average 100 times, and both of them had a profitable win rate. The Hull Moving Average is not exactly like the moving average that most traders are used to. So will it make more money than the other moving average trading strategy? Let’s find out. If you still don’t know about the profitable and simple moving average strategy that actually made money, check out the EMA and SMA moving average strategy videos on the Trading Rush Channel.

This is a 100-period simple moving average, and this is a 100-period exponential moving average. Now we know that the exponential moving average is different from the simple moving average because it gives more importance to the latest candles. But visually they are not that different from each other. The simple and exponential moving average are staying close to each other. But, if you add the same 100 period Hull moving average, even your dog can tell that the hull moving average is calculating the average in a different way and is showing a different value on the chart.

The Hull Moving Average was created by Alan Hull, and its main focus was to smooth out the moving average and reduce the lag. And that’s exactly what the Hull moving average does. On a trending chart, if you plot a 100 period SMA, EMA, and the Hull Moving average at the same time, you will notice that the 100 period Hull moving average will stay very close to the candles, while the Simple and Exponential will stay far away.

The Hull Moving Average is a moving average so people are going to use it to find the direction of the trend. But the creator of the HMA indicator Alan Hull does not recommend using the Hull as a crossover trading strategy. In other words, it is not recommended to use the Hull Moving Average to generate crossover signals. Which makes sense, because the whole point of making the HMA was to reduce the lag and show the change in direction quickly as possible.

In an uptrend, traders look for buying opportunities when the Hull moving average starts to rise up, and when the HMA is falling, traders look for short opportunities. Now let’s be honest, you are not going to take trades only based on a moving average. If you can trade only with a moving average, you can probably trade without using a moving average like Hull. Because if you look closely, you will notice that all Hull Moving Average is doing is sticking close to the price. And if you remove the Hull Moving Average, you can still easily tell where the price is going.

But what many of you wanted to find out was, if the Hull Moving Average was Better than the Simple and Exponential Moving Average Trading Strategies, and what will happen if we break the rules and use it as a crossover strategy. What will be the win rate of the Hull Moving Average Strategy?

The Hull Moving Average Crossover Trading strategy is easy to understand and goes like this. When the 100 period Hull moving average crosses above the 200-period simple moving average, it’s a buy signal. In the long setup, the stop loss goes below the 200 simple moving average. Similarly, when the 100 period Hull Moving Average crosses below the 200-period simple moving average, it’s a sell signal. In the short setup, the stop loss goes above the 200 period moving average. Furthermore, the entry candle should not be on or between the simple and Hull moving average. Simple as that.

So I tested the Hull Moving Average Trading Strategy 100 times, and here’s what I found out.

Number 1. The best part about the HMA strategy is the space between the Hull moving average and the Simple Moving Average. In a long setup, since we are entering the trades when the price is above both Hull and Simple Moving Average, the area between the Moving Averages is acting as the Cloud of the Ichimoku Cloud Indicator. If you have watched the Ichimoku Cloud Trading Strategy Video on the Trading Rush Channel, you already know that cloud is one of the best parts about the Ichimoku Cloud Indicator and how it filters the slow trending and range markets. By using the 200 period SMA with the 100 period Hull moving average, we are creating an area similar to the cloud that filters some of the range markets on a chart.

Number 2. If you take a look at the profit graph on the Trading Rush App, you will notice that Hull Moving Average was making money consistently at the beginning. This was when the price was making big moves after the entry signals. But since the market moves sideways most of the time, a couple of trades were lost in a row. At one point, the Hull Moving Average Trading Strategy lost 12 trades in a row. Now, remember, I tested this strategy with a 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio to compare it with other trading strategies we have tested on the Trading Rush Channel. But while taking 100 trades with it, I noticed that many winning trades had the potential to make more than 2 times more profit than the risk. In other words, while using the Hull Moving Average Trading Strategy, it can sometimes be better to trail the stop loss to catch the big move, and to get a high reward risk ratio. I have already talked about some of the best trailing stop loss indicators on the Trading Rush Channel, check it out to learn more.

So after taking 100 trades with the Hull Moving Average Trading Strategy, I got an approximate win rate of 42 percent with a 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio. Since we were booking more profit than the risk, the HMA trading strategy still made money in the Trading Rush App, but this profit was not as good as some other trading strategies we have tested on the Trading Rush Channel. It won 4 trades in a row but lost 12 trades in a row. The Hull Moving Average Crossover strategy is not that bad, it is just that your chances of making good money with it are low. But let’s see where it ranks up against other trading strategies we have tested so far, by giving the Hull Moving Average Trading Strategy a TR score.

If you have watched the Golden Cross Trading Strategy Video or are already familiar with it, you probably realized that the Hull moving average crossover strategy is very similar to the Golden Cross Strategy. And surprisingly, both strategies got the same win rate after testing 100 times. Since the Hull moving average got the same win rate as the Golden Cross, it gets a 4.2 out of 10 in the Win Rate category, just like the Golden Cross Strategy.

It gets a 7.5 in the easy-to-use category. And gets a 4 out of 10 in the Reliability Category. The profit graph of the Hull Moving Average Strategy was slightly better than the profit graph of the Golden Cross Strategy and less noisy when compared with the profit graphs of some other strategies that also got a win rate of around 42 percent. So in the consistent profits category, it gets a 4 out of 10. And in the quality of the Trades Category, it gets a 4.5 out of 10.

So the Hull Moving Average trading strategy gets a TR Score of 24.2 out of 50. And on the Trading Rush Website, it ranks 17th from the top, below the RSI Supertrend Trading Strategy, and above the Stochastic Strategy.

And that’s all.

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I got more than 85% WIN RATE with this Trading Strategy… and I hate it!

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date February 26, 2021

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I got more than an 85 percent win rate in trading and made money without losing a single day in February. Since the start of this year, I have traded 22 days and made money 19 out of those 22 days. In this video, I am going to show you what trading strategy I used to make money consistently, what my profit graph looks like, what is this big loss, and why winning multiple days in a row like this is not a good idea. So if you want to make money in trading more consistently, keep watching, and also watch the “how I got more than 70 percent win rate in January” video, because I’m going to reference some of the things I explained in that video.

The Error.

To understand how I ended up making money, we will have to start from the beginning. If we look up the profit loss report from the start of this year till today, you will see that I started this year in the negative. The first trade of the year was lost. But if you have watched one of the previous videos, you probably remember me saying that these two trades are actually one. While I was setting up my trade, the price made an unexpected move. In simple words, the price made a sudden move down in just a few seconds that multiple green candles took a lot of time to make. I was in the middle of setting up the trade, and when the price made a move down, my higher than 1 reward risk ratio trade was suddenly a 0.1 reward risk ratio trade. So I exited the position with a loss and created a new position that had an okay reward risk ratio. And as you can see, the second trade I took with a higher than one reward risk ratio, recovered the loss and made some money. If we look at the profit graph, you will see that this year started with a loss, but the next trade brought everything back in the profit.

The View.

In the Forex and stock market, your overall view of the market is really important. If you have been trading for a while, you most likely heard someone say that trading only a few pairs and stocks is a good idea. That couldn’t be further from the truth. You see, when you trade one or few selected pairs, you get to know how they normally move, how they have been moving for the n number of days, and what movement you can expect from them. Many traders like to trade a single stock like “apple” or the index itself. And if you ask them about their stock, they can tell everything about it from memory even in their sleep. I’m bringing this up, because the overall view of the market you get from looking and trading the same thing every day, can be a game-changer. In the last two months, I have traded the same thing, and it was one of the main reasons I got such a high win rate.

The Profitable strategy.

On the Trading Rush channel, I have tested many different trading strategies 100 times to find their approximate win rates. One of the strategies that got more than a 60 percent win rate while testing, was the MACD Trading Strategy. Subscribers of the Trading Rush Channel already know about this strategy and are probably using it. But there is another trading strategy that I have talked about that doesn’t get a lot of attention. After losing and making money in these two days respectively, I had 5 green days in a row with the MACD and V WAP Trading Strategy. Furthermore, I shared the 13th and 14th-day trades in the form of a live trading video. There are a lot of trading strategies out there, and after testing most of them 100 times on the Trading Rush Channel, we saw that most of them don’t even have a good win rate. I traded with the MACD Trading Strategy and the V WAP trading strategy in the direction of my overall view of the market. I have tested the MACD strategy 100 times but not the V WAP strategy. Unlike the MACD indicator, the V WAP indicator is more of a tool and doesn’t generate entry signals on its own. So it can’t be tested. But if you understand it properly, you can spot the potential buying and selling areas on a chart. On an intraday chart, it was one of the key indicators used during this week. To learn more about the highest win rate strategy and the V WAP strategy, check out other videos on the Trading Rush Channel, and while you are at it, subscribe and ring that notification bell to see win rates of other trading strategies that we have tested 100 times. After all, you don’t want to end up with a strategy that doesn’t have a good win rate in the first place.

The Big Loss.

There are different ways of entering a trade in the forex and stock market. Similarly, there are different ways of managing money in the financial markets. If you pay attention, you will notice that compared to other red days, this day has the deepest red. If you connect the dots, you will notice that on this day I had a big loss. If you remember, in one of the videos I said I use different risk amounts for different kinds of trades. On the profit loss report, you will see that some green days are light green and some are dark green. This means that some days the profit was big, and some days the profit was small. Since I trade stock and index options mostly, it is sometimes difficult to enter and exit trades properly when the volume is low and the spreads are big. Furthermore, while day trading on smaller time frames like 2 minutes, for some reason, if the broker freezes, cancels your stop loss, and stops taking new orders, you can lose a lot of money with a bigger position if the price makes a sudden move. These things are rare, but they do happen, and I’ve seen this happen multiple times now, and almost lost a lot of money because of the broker’s fault. So I don’t risk a lot of money while trading on a smaller time frame. Instead of risking the same amount of money every single time, I take three kinds of trades in a month. The first type is an intraday trade with small position size. The second type of trade is a weekly trade with a big amount, and the third type of trade is a monthly trade with a bigger position size. In the month of January, the monthly trade that had the biggest position size lost money, and that’s why you see a big red day near the end of this month.

But if you look at the profit graph, you will notice that I only made a small loss in total at the end of the month.

The Probability.

Most trading strategies work in the long run. If you increase the reward risk ratio, your win rate will go down, and if you decrease the reward risk ratio, your win rate will go up. The intraday trades I take have around 1.5 reward risk ratios, and the weekly and monthly trades I take have a lower reward risk ratio of around 1. So what ends up happening is, when I lose the intraday trades, the weekly trades that have a high probability of winning cover the loss of the intraday trades. If weekly trade makes a loss, the intraday trades cover the loss of the weekly trades. And if both intraday and weekly trades lose money, the monthly trades end up covering the loss of the entire month because it has a higher probability of making money. With a profitable trading strategy, losing most or all trades in a month is very unlikely. But it can happen, and that loss is covered usually by the next month. In the month of January, the monthly trade made a loss, but the intraday and weekly trades covered the loss of the monthly trade.

The Backup Plan.

You see, when we take a monthly trade, there is a view. For example, we take a monthly trade because we think that price will go in an upward direction. But what if the price doesn’t go in your entry direction. Let’s say, after entering the trade, your original view changes because of breaking news or something. One can simply close the position or wait for the price to reach the stop loss. But since we take different kinds of trades, if we think that the price is not going to go in the entry direction of the monthly trade, we will take the weekly trade in the opposite direction of the monthly trade. So if the price makes a big move against the monthly position, the weekly trades end up covering the loss. And that’s exactly what I did in the month of February when the price was going against my entry direction. For some reason, beginner traders focus too much on winning that single trade. Trading is all about probabilities, and one can easily lose money in the short term, but if you are booking more profits than your risk, or have a high win rate trading strategy, you will most likely make money in the long run. Instead of focusing on a single trade, focusing on the big picture is a good idea.

The Biggest Winning Streak.

Since the January month only made a small loss, that small loss was quickly recovered by the intraday and weekly trades in the first week of February. Then with MACD and V WAP Trading Strategies combined with support and resistance areas, I was able to get a few more green days in a row. I think I shared one or two trades in the form of a live trading video. Check those out if you want. In the February monthly trade, I bought when I was expecting the price to move in the upward direction. Took a short trade when the price was at resistance and booked a partial profit when the price was at support. This can sound very confusing, but all I’m doing is buying and selling at the support and resistance, and I’m using the MACD and V WAP trading strategies to enter in the direction of my overall view of the market.

At this point, I had booked the monthly trade profit, made more money than lost in the previous month, and since there was still one week remaining, I took a weekly trade when the price was near a support level, and that trade made a profit as well. By trading with profitable trading strategies near the support and resistance areas, I got a decent win rate. The profit graph also went in the upward direction. But I don’t like it.

The Problem.

Most people like winning multiple days in a row, and having no losing days in the entire month. But this can create a big problem. I had an excellent win rate in the last two months, but this is not my long-term win rate. My long-term win rate is somewhere between 55 and 65 percent. Let’s say if my long-term win rate is around 60 percent, and if I have won too many trades in a row, there is a good chance that there will be some red days in the following months.

I have had multiple green days in a row before, but I prefer not getting a really long winning streak, because it can make you overconfident about your trading style or strategy. And when the losing streak starts, watching the downward spike on your profit graph can affect your trading psychology.

The Profit.

Trading with MACD and V WAP trading strategies near the support and resistance area while keeping the overall view of the market in mind, made me money with an excellent win rate. I have already taken the next week and next month trades. The weekly trade has a good probability of winning, but as of writing this, the monthly trade doesn’t look that great. I will try to cover that loss with the weekly and intraday trades, but if the monthly trade is won, it will most likely make around 1.5 times more profit than the profit of all the trades of February month combined.

So if you want to see that and want to learn about the strategies that got me an excellent win rate, subscribe to the Trading Rush Channel and ring that notification bell, after all, you don’t want to risk your money on a strategy that has a bad win rate. Support the Trading Rush Channel on Patreon and get to see in-depth trade analysis and some good trading opportunities signals. Thanks for watching.

I combined MACD + Ichimoku 100 TIMES and this happened… MACD Ichimoku Cloud Trading Strategies

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date February 21, 2021
2 Comments on I combined MACD + Ichimoku 100 TIMES and this happened… MACD Ichimoku Cloud Trading Strategies

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I took one hundred Trades to see what will happen if you combine Ichimoku Cloud, with the MACD Trading Strategy? Ichimoku Cloud on its own got an approximate win rate of 53 percent, and MACD Trading Strategy got an approximate win rate of 62 percent. Now Ichimoku cloud is a messy indicator, but at the same time, that same mess gives a lot of information about the price movement. What I wanted to find out was, will the Ichimoku cloud Trading Strategy give a good win rate like last time if we remove some of the Ichimoku lines and make it look much cleaner. And at the end of this video, we are going to give the incomplete Ichimoku Cloud trading strategy a Trading Rush Score, to compare it with other trading strategies we have tested so far.

Now, remember, the 53 percent win rate the Ichimoku cloud got, is actually excellent because the 53 percent win rate was achieved with a 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio. And even your dog can tell that any win rate higher than 50 percent with a higher than 1 reward risk ratio, is a really good win rate. This is the Ichimoku indicator, and I have already explained how it works and how to use it to make money in trading. So in this video, we are going to get rid of some of the Ichimoku lines, to see what happens. I mean who knows if the Ichimoku Cloud can give a profitable winrate without the other things or not. So here are all the Ichimoku lines, and this is the cloud. If you have watched the previous Ichimoku Cloud video, you know that this cloud is really important, because it identifies and stops you from trading in the range markets. So we are going to keep that. We are going to get rid of the lagging span. We are also going to get rid of lead 1 and lead 2 to make it look cleaner. And we are also going to get rid of the conversion line. So we are only going to use the cloud and the base line.

Now if you look at the Ichimoku Cloud indicator, you will notice that it looks much simpler than before. Furthermore, if you look closely, you will notice that this Ichimoku Cloud is kind of indicating strong trends. Here, when there was an uptrend going on, the price was staying above the base line. And here, when there was a downtrend going on, the price was staying below the base line. Also, in the last Ichimoku Cloud video we found out that, if the cloud is green, there is an uptrend going on. And if the cloud is red, there is a downtrend going on. Furthermore, if the price is on the cloud, it can mean that price is in a range, or a slow trend, or changing the trend direction. So what we want is this: If we want to buy in a strong trend, we want the cloud to be green, and we want the base line above the cloud, and the price to be above the base line. If we want to sell in a strong downtrend, we want the cloud to be red and we want the base line below the cloud, and the price to be below the base line.

But hold on a minute, the Ichimoku Cloud looks good and all, but there is no entry signal generator. In other words, nothing is giving an entry signal. Last time, we bought and sold when the base line and conversion line gave a crossover. But in this video, we removed the conversion line, and now all we have is the base line. So now, we have the Ichimoku Cloud showing the strong trends, but nothing that generates an entry signal in the strong trend. So I looked through other indicators that we have tested so far on the Trading Rush channel, to see if we can use something that generates an entry signal in a strong trend. First I combined Ichimoku with the MACD trading strategy that got around 60 percent approximate win rate. But since the MACD strategy gives entry signals when the pullback is big, and since this Ichimoku Cloud shows strong trends, MACD strategy won’t exactly work. We need something that gives good entry signals when the price is moving in a strong trend without giving any deeper pullbacks. In the MACD Trading Strategy video, we bought when the MACD crossover was below the zero line. With the zero line rule, we were only finding the deeper pullbacks in an uptrend, which was a good thing, and made the strategy profitable. We could use the MACD crossover without the zero line rule, but we have something even better. If you remember, in the AI trades video, we created our very own Indicator and gave it a completely professional name “Beep Boop”. That indicator was based on the MACD indicator, but it filtered some of the false MACD crossovers and gave MACD signals in the strong trends. The Beep Boop indicator strategy was also a profitable trading strategy, and if you want to see how it was made, or want to see how to get it for free, check out the AI trades or the Beep Boop Video on the Trading Rush Channel.

Now that we have an indicator that will generate good entry signals in the direction of the trend, here’s how the modified MACD and Ichimoku Cloud Trading Strategy is going to work. If the cloud is green, the base line is above the cloud, and if the price is above the base line, we buy when the Beep Boop Indicator gives a buy entry signal. For those who have not watched the previous Beep Boop video, the buy entry signal according to the Beep Boop Indicator is when the first green bar appears. If the cloud is red, and if the base line is below the cloud, and if the price is below the base line, we sell when the Beep Boop Indicator gives a sell entry signal. Sell Entry according to the Beep Boop is when the first red bar appears. As for the stop loss, since the price stays above the base line of the Ichimoku Cloud, we can set the stop loss below the base line in an uptrend. And set the stop loss above the base line in a downtrend. If Ichimoku Cloud is showing a range, or in other words, if price or base line is on the cloud, entry signals are not valid. Furthermore, while the initial testing, I found out that when the price is in a slow trend or a range, the base line crosses the entry candle. So we will only take entry signals, where the body of the candle is above or below the base line.

Look at this example, here Ichimoku Cloud is showing an uptrend. So we enter when the Beep Boop Indicator gives a buy signal and set the stop loss below the base line of the Ichimoku Cloud. Here, the Ichimoku indicator is indicating a downtrend, so we will sell when the Beep Boop Indicator, or in other words, when the modified MACD gives a short entry signal.

So I tested the MACD and Ichimoku Cloud Trading Strategy 100 times, and here’s what happened.

Number 1. The best part about the Ichimoku Cloud is the base line and the cloud itself. When the price was in a good trend, more trades were won than lost. As you can see, the profit graph went up. But when the price went in the sideways direction, in other words, when price gave false entry signals in the range market, many false signals were filtered by the Ichimoku Cloud. When the price was in a slow trend, some trades were lost because the stop loss that was set according to the base line, was too small. But that’s not exactly a bad thing. In this strategy, we have modified the Ichimoku Cloud and the MACD indicator to show the strong trends. If the price slows down or doesn’t go in our entry direction, we want to get out as quickly as possible.

As you can see in the Trading Rush App, the profit graph went up when the price was in a strong trend, went sideways when the trend was slow, went up when the trend was strong, and so on. Even after taking trades in a slow trend, the profit with the Ichimoku Cloud never went below zero like some of the other trading strategies we have tested so far. Entry signals were taken in the trend direction, Ichimoku Cloud filtered most of the range market, and the profit graph kept going up and up. The starting balance in the Trading Rush App was 10000, and at one point, the account balance reached 12200.

And after 100 trades with the MACD and Ichimoku Cloud Trading Strategy, I got an approximate win rate of 47 percent. And since we used a 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio, 47 percent is a profitable win rate. The maximum number of trades lost in a row was 10, and the max number of trades won in a row was 7. The profit graph of the MACD and Ichimoku strategy also looks a lot better than some other strategies we have tested so far.

So now, let’s give the MACD and Ichimoku Cloud trading strategy a Trading Rush Score, to see where it ranks up against other strategies.

Interestingly, Beep Boop and Ichimoku together got a win rate close to the win rate Beep Boop Trading Strategy got on its own. This strategy got a 47 percent approximate win rate, and Beep Boop had a 48 percent approximate win rate. So in the Win Rate Category, it gets a 5.8 out of 10 just like the Beep Boop Indicator.

In the easy-to-use category, it gets a 5.5 out of 10. And in the Reliability category, it gets a 6.3 out of 10. It does not give a lot of false signals and even tries to filter the range markets.

In the consistent profits category, it gets a 5.3 out of 10. And because it gives entry signals in the direction of the strong trend, and avoids you from taking trades when the market is in a range, it gets a 7.5 in the Quality of the Trades Category.

So the MACD and Ichimoku Cloud Trading Strategy got a TR Score of 30.4 out of 50. And it ranks 12th from the top, just above the Fractal Breakout, and below the Chaikin Oscillator Trading Strategy.

And That’s all!

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The Hidden Truth about the 60% WIN RATE Trading Strategy

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date February 19, 2021
4 Comments on The Hidden Truth about the 604 WIN RATE Trading Strategy

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How to get more than 60% win rate in Trading? The MACD strategy we tested 100 times, got more than 60 percent win rate on its own. But the MACD indicator is nothing special, it is definitely not the holy grail. But if you have been trading for a while, you already know that the MACD strategy we discussed on the Trading Rush Channel, is showing something really important on a trading chart. Imagine this, there is Bill the first, there is Bill the second, and there is Bill the fundamental. Let’s say Bill the second drives a car like Tesla with a built-in navigation system. On the other hand, Bill the first and Bill the fundamental are driving with no navigation systems. Let’s say all three Bills want to get to their work. When Bill the first takes his usual route to his work, he realizes that there is a roadblock. There is some kind of important event taking place ahead. Since he can’t go any further, he has to take a U-turn. After taking a U-turn, Bill the first finds another route that takes him to his destination. Then there is Bill the second with his navigation system. The navigation system alerts Bill the second about the roadblock and shows the new route that everyone is taking. Then there is Bill the fundamental guy, who already knew about the event and took a different route in the first place without taking any help from a navigation system. If you look closely, you will notice that Bill the first, Bill the second, and Bill the fundamental are similar to a price-action trader, an indicator trader, and a fundamental trader respectively. And all three kinds of drivers made or changed their decisions, because of the same event. Bill the first had to take another route because he saw the roadblock. Bill the second’s navigation system indicated him about the roadblock, so Bill the second also took another route to his destination. And since Bill the fundamental did his research and already knew about the event, he was already planning to take the new route to his destination. Even though all three Bills noticed the event in a different way, the next decisions were almost the same: “Take the new route”.

There are three kinds of traders in the forex and stock market. The ones who use indicators like Bill the second, the traders who trade by looking at only the price action, and the ones who look at fundamentals before taking the trades. Let’s say the fundamental trader was expecting the price to move in the upward direction because of an event. According to the fundamental trader, any pullback or discount in this upward move is an excellent buying opportunity. The price action trader sees an uptrend pattern, and the indicator trader uses a moving average like the 200 period moving average and comes to the same conclusion that the price is in a good uptrend, and any pullback is an excellent buying opportunity. Now let’s say, Bill the fundamental took a trade when the price was right here. According to his research, the price is expected to bounce back up. And let’s say price does start to go in the upward direction. Let’s say Bill the fundamental is right, and this is the end of the pullback. Maybe there is some kind of event that will have a positive impact on the market. Bill the first who is a price action trader, sees that the price is making an upward move, and enters the trade when the price makes a higher swing high and higher swing low pattern. On the other hand, since Bill the second is an indicator trader who likes to trade in the direction of the long-term trend, he uses a trend following trading strategy like the MACD strategy. If you look closely, this scenario is quite similar to the traffic scenario we saw earlier.

In the traffic scenario, all three kinds of drivers made a similar decision. In this scenario, all three kinds of traders also made a similar decision. And you can say that this reversal point is like a roadblock. In the strategies tested 100 times series, I tested many different trading strategies 100 times. But in most of those videos, I recommended setting the stop loss using the pullback. The MACD strategy that got a 60 percent approximate win rate after testing 100 times, also used the pullback stop loss.

In an uptrend, if the price gives a pullback, and you enter near the end of the pullback, setting the stop loss below the pullback is a really good idea. Now if you set the stop loss below the pullback it doesn’t mean that it won’t get hit. Trading is a probability game. Nothing is 100 percent. Price can break the pullback support and hit your stop loss, but if you set your stop loss below the pullback, the price will have a difficult time crossing it.

In the second scenario, Bill the second who used the MACD trading strategy that got a high win rate on the Trading Rush Channel. The MACD indicator is a momentum indicator, and in an uptrend, we use the MACD trading Strategy to find the end of the pullbacks. In simple words, we look at the MACD indicator to see if the downward momentum of the pullback is decreasing or not. In the second scenario, the entry according to the MACD Trading Strategy was right here.

And even though an indicator trader like Bill the second, who didn’t know the reason why price reversed from this area like Bill the fundamental did, by setting the stop loss below the roadblock, he has unknowingly increased the probability of winning even more. If you have watched some of the latest videos on the Trading Rush Channel, you know I had a high win rate in the last two months. Some of those trades I shared in the form of a live trading video. If you have watched those videos, and if you are supporting Trading Rush on Patreon, you already know that I usually set the stop loss below or above the pullback.

Since the MACD video was uploaded on the channel, many have emailed me saying that they are getting a better win rate with the MACD Trading Strategy than they used to get with their previous strategies. You probably heard someone say that trend is your friend, and you should always trade in the direction of the trend to have a higher probability of making money. One of the reasons the MACD Trading Strategy got a high win rate, was because it gave entry signals in the direction of the trend. Furthermore, MACD strategy tries to give an entry signal near the end of the pullback. And since I used the pullback stop loss while testing, it got a 60 percent approximate win rate when we tested it 100 times.

Someone will say “Indicator Strategy is not good, and price action is the only way to make money”. But in reality, there are people who trade with no indicators and make money, there are traders who use indicators and make money, and there are people who do fundamental analysis and make money, and amateur traders end up arguing that one is better than the other. One is not better than the other. One can make money without using an indicator, and one can make the same profit with an indicator. If you tell a lawyer to do an operation and tell the doctor to go to court, the end result probably won’t be good. MACD crossover was nothing special, MACD is just an indicator that is showing the increasing and decreasing momentum. But if you use it in the right place, it will do wonders for you.

Furthermore, combining indicator strategy with the price action can significantly increase the overall win rate in trading. Since the start of this year, I have shared 18 live trade analysis on Patreon, and 12 of them reached the profit targets. Most of the trades had a 1.5 to 1 Reward Risk Ratio, and some trades had a 1 to 1 reward risk ratio because there was a support resistance nearby. So in the last two months, the live analysis I did on Patreon had a win rate of 66 percent. And in the stock market, the win rate I had was more than 70 percent. The point is, combining indicator strategies with price action got me a high win rate in trading, so you can give it a try as well if you want. I have already talked about how I find charts and analyze setups on this channel, and on the Trading Rush Patreon Page. Check them out if you want. Just remember that just because I or someone else got a high win rate by combining price action and indicator strategy, doesn’t mean everyone will get the same win rate. With an indicator strategy, there is a good chance that everyone who trades with it will get a similar win rate. But the win rate with a price action strategy will depend on how good you are at identifying the price patterns. Trading is a game, where an impatient trader loses money, and the patient person makes more money.

This is a normal trading chart. But if you look at the reversal points as a roadblock, you will probably notice some of the important price levels. In this uptrend, the price went in an upward direction and then gave a pullback. When the pullback was over, MACD gave a long entry signal. In this setup, we would have entered near the MACD signal and would have set the stop loss below the pullback. Why below the pullback? Well, because it looks like price found support at this price area. In other words, a roadblock. Since this is an uptrend, the price can move in an upward direction after this pullback. When that happens, this trade will make a profit. If it does not move in the upward direction, the stop loss will be hit and we will book the loss.

In this example, the price made a move up. Then gave another pullback. Near the end of this pullback, MACD gave another long entry signal. Again we will enter at the MACD signal, and set the stop loss below the pullback. As you can see, the price made a move in the upward direction.

Now if you find easily identifiable roadblocks, or in other words, if you find reversal points that are easier to spot, you will notice that these price areas act as strong support and resistance areas.

On this chart, we can see that price reversed from these 6 price points. And if you scroll a little bit to the right, you will see that after making a move down, the price came back up and these price points were acting as a strong resistance. Price reversed from this resistance area and made a move down. Then it came back up and reversed from the resistance area again. Price reversed from the resistance area, not one, not two, but three times before finally breaking above it.

Setting the stop-loss below the pullback in an uptrend is like setting the stop-loss below a support level, and setting the stop-loss above the pullback in a downtrend, is like setting it above the resistance level. One of the first things we learn as a beginner trader is that price has a higher probability of reacting from the support and resistance areas. By setting the stop loss below or above the pullback, we can decrease the chances of price triggering the stop loss, and increase the probability of winning.

That’s all!

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I tested RSI + SUPERTREND Trading Strategy 100 TIMES… so you don’t have to

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date February 14, 2021

RSI supertrend trading strategies

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Does the RSI Supertrend Trading strategy even work? What will happen if you combine RSI indicator with the Supertrend Indicator? Will you make money in trading? To find out, I took 100 Trades with the RSI with Supertrend trading strategy, so you don’t have to. We tested the RSI and Supertrend strategies separately on the Trading Rush channel and they both had a profitable win rate. RSI strategy got a win rate around 49 percent with a 1.5 to 1 Reward Risk Ratio, and the Supertrend indicator on its own got an average win rate. To see the Supertrend trading strategy, check out the Supertrend strategy video on this channel.

When we tested the RSI indicator last time, we entered the trade when the RSI crossed below or above the 30 and 70 levels. When RSI value went above the 30 level, we bought. And when the RSI value went below the 70 level, we sold. On the other hand, with the supertrend indicator, we bought when the supertrend indicator indicated an uptrend, and sold when the supertrend indicator indicated a down trend.

This worked fine! Both trading strategies got a profitable win rate, and made money in the Trading Rush App. But if we want to combine RSI and Supertrend together to see what happens, we will have to modify the strategy a little bit.

You see, the supertrend indicator is showing the short term trend direction. And the RSI indicator is showing the oversold and overbought areas. But as some of you already know, RSI works good when the market is in a range. You can use it to trade the trend. But when the market is moving sideways, some traders sell and buy when the RSI value reaches overbought and oversold zones respectively.

But many times, when the price is moving in one direction, let’s say in an uptrend, the RSI will go above overbought 70 level, and many traders will see this as an increase in buying pressure. Similar thing applies when RSI value goes below the 30 level. Instead of buying, many traders will see the RSI crossing below the 30 level as an increase in selling pressure, and will sell instead of buying.

When we combine the RSI and Supertrend indicator, we buy, when the RSI crosses above the 70 level, only if the supertrend indicator is showing an uptrend. And we will sell when the RSI crosses below the 30 level, if the supertrend indicator is showing a down trend.

Subscribers of the Trading Rush channel probably noticed, that we are not using the 200 period moving average this time. Wouldn’t that affect the win rate, and the end result while comparing it with previously tested strategies? Well yes, but this time, we wanted to see what happens if we don’t use a moving average to find the trend, and use the supertrend indicator instead.

Since we are using the supertrend, in a long RSI and Supertrend setup, we can set the stop loss below it. And in a short setup, you can set the stop loss above the supertrend indicator.

Look at this example. The supertrend indicator is showing a short term uptrend, so we will only look for long entry signals. We wait for the RSI value to cross above the 70 level. When there is a buy signal, we enter the trade and set the stop loss below the supertrend indicator.

On this chart, the supertrend indicator is showing a downtrend, so we will only take short entry signals. We wait for the RSI to cross below the 30 level this time, and when that happens, we will take a short position and we will set the stop loss above the supertrend indicator. Simple as that.

So I tested the RSI with the supertrend indicator 100 times, and here’s what happened.

Number 1. As you can see the profit graph with the RSI and Supertrend strategy, shot up. The profit in the Trading Rush App went from 0 to around 2000 in just 20 trades. At the beginning it gave a lot of winning trades in a row. But then the profit line stopped going up, and started to go sideways. Between zero and 20th trade, it was like a rocket ship, but from 21st to around 60 trades, it was in a range. Then, the profit went almost straight down.

But Why is the Supertrend with RSI giving such a result? Well, while testing, I noticed that sometimes, RSI gives multiple signals in a short period of time. At the beginning, when the price was trending up, RSI with supertrend gave a lot of signals in a row, and almost all of them were won. That’s why you see a big upward move on the profit graph. When the trend was slow, or was changing directions frequently, some trades were won, some trades were lost. Then the price was going in the sideways direction. And after that, when price started trending strongly in one direction, multiple signals were taken in a short time period and won. But that’s not the only thing I found out.

Number 2. We used the Supertrend indicator to find the short term trend direction. But while testing 100 times, I found out that almost all buy RSI signals appeared when the Supertrend was showing an uptrend. And almost all sell signals appeared when supertrend was showing a down trend. In other words, when RSI crosses above the 70 level, the supertrend will most likely show an uptrend. And when RSI crosses below the 30 level, supertrend will most likely show a down trend. With this RSI and Supertrend strategy, supertrend was more of a stop loss indicator rather than a trend direction indicator.

After 100 trades, the RSI Supertrend trading strategy got an approximate win rate of 45 percent. The reward risk ratio was 1.5 to 1, and it got 8 winning trades in a row, but lost 12 trades in a row. So let’s give the RSI Supertrend strategy a TR score.

It gets a 5 out of ten in the Win Rate Category.

And gets a 6.5 out of 10 in the Easy to Use Category. All you have to do is look at the RSI value and set the stop loss below or above the supertrend line.

Even though the win rate was profitable in the Trading Rush App, there were a lot of signals taken in a short period of time. In reality, when you enter a trade, you are not going to take another trade, just a few candles after that. So in the Reliability category, it gets a 4 out of 10.

And even though the RSI Supertrend strategy made money in the end, the profit line went almost straight up at the start, went sideways for a while, and then went almost straight down. That is not as consistent as some other strategies we have seen on this channel. So in the consistent profits category, it gets a 4.5 out of 10.

When you combine the RSI and Supertrend indicator, the entry signals are generated in the direction of the trend. But while testing, I noticed that the supertrend trading strategy we tested 100 times, gave better quality signals on its own. So in the quality of the trades category, it gets a 6.3 out of 10 which is a bit less than the supertrend got on its own.

So the TR score is 26.3 out of 50. And the RSI Supertrend Trading Strategy ranks 15th from the top, just above the Stochastic indicator, and below the Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy.

So that’s all.

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How to Trade Range Like A PRO… (Bad Range VS Good Range)

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date February 12, 2021

sideways range trading strategies forex stock market

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This is a range, and this is also a range. But there is a big difference between these two. How do you master the Range Market in Forex and Stock Market? I have talked a lot about trading with the trend on this channel, but how do traders make profits when the price is moving sideways? Today, I’m going to show you how I made money by day trading in a sideways market. In the previous videos, you saw how I got a high win rate in the last two months. And in the last video, you saw how the trade on Monday made a profit. Since then, I have had two more green days. But these are not really two trades. In the last video, I said I had two trades running. One of those trades was a weekly trade, and the other one was a monthly. The weekly trade was in profit, so I booked a profit on it. And in the monthly trade, when the market was at 15250, I sold a lot of call options, because I was expecting the price to go down. Since the price went down, the call options I sold decreased in value, and I was in profit. So I closed 1 third of my monthly position, and booked a partial profit. Remember the strong support level I talked about in the last video? Well, after making a downward move, price found support on the 15000 mark, and started to go sideways.

Now remember, at the start of this video, I said, there are two kinds of sideways market. One looks something like this, and the other one looks like this. On the first chart, price moves between two levels that are very close to each other. It is a bit difficult to get good reward risk ratios in these kinds of sideways markets. So instead of trading inside of these levels, many traders wait for breakouts. When the price moves in a sideways direction like this, many people set their stop loss below and above the range. If you see a range like this one, there is a good chance that there will be orders above and below it. When price breaks these levels, lets say price moves higher, multiple orders will be triggered. When this happens, you can see a good move in the breakout direction. Some traders buy as soon as the breakout happens, and some wait for a confirmation because not all breakouts are worth trading immediately. I have already explained how to trade breakout, and identify false breakouts like a pro, check out the False Breakout video on the Trading Rush Channel to learn more. While you are at it, subscribe and ring the notification bell, because on the Trading Rush channel we also test and have tested many different trading strategies 100 times to find their win rates. After all, you don’t want to risk your hard earned money on a strategy that doesn’t even work.

In the last video, you saw me make money in the first kind of sideways market. This is the second kind of sideways market. And this is where things get a little complicated. You see, on the first chart, you could easily see the price was in a range. It was moving between two price levels. But if you look closely, you will notice that these two charts are actually the same. Price went up on the first chart, price also went up on the second chart. Price went down on the first chart, price also went down on the second chart, and so on. If you look closely, you will notice that if you switch to a higher timeframe, the second chart will look very similar to the first one. Many beginner traders are so focused on their entry timeframes, that they forget that price is in a range on the higher timeframe. On this chart, price is in a similar range. It is moving between two price levels. And as you already know, the top of the range will act as a strong resistance area, and the bottom of the range will act as a support area. In the last video, I said that there is a strong support below. And When I shorted the call option when the price was at the top, I booked a profit when the price came down near this support area. Since then, price has not made a big move in one direction. It is staying between these two levels.

Furthermore, after doing the option chain analysis, I found out that, there were almost equal amounts of long and short positions near the 15200 mark. In simple words, this means that price can stay in a range. And as you already know, the best place to buy and sell in a range market, is at the support and resistance respectively. In this case, the 15250 is the resistance, and 15000 is the support. When I opened the charts, the price was near the 15200 price mark. So I waited for the price to come up near the 15250 resistance. Now, we won’t immediately sell when price comes near the resistance. We are not going to blindly take trades at the resistance. Remember, if price wants to go above the resistance, it can go above the resistance. Since price is in a range, there is a higher probability that price will reverse from the resistance area.

When price comes near the resistance level, we need to see a decrease in upward momentum. Subscribers of the Trading Rush Channel already know, when it comes to finding the momentum of a move, there is nothing better than the MACD indicator. MACD Trading Strategy got the highest win rate when we tested it 100 times. If you don’t know about the MACD strategy, check out the MACD video on the Trading Rush Channel.

When price came near the resistance area on the 2 min time frame, MACD gave a crossover. But the signal was a little bit earlier than I expected. I wanted to sell close to the 15250 mark. So when MACD gave a signal, I created a limit order slightly above the MACD signal. But when the price was not making an upward move, I entered near the MACD signal. I sold a call option.

The chart on the right hand side is an options chart, and it will move very similar to the chart on the left. After taking a trade near the resistance area, I was looking to book the profit near the support area mentioned earlier, and looking to book a loss if price crosses above the resistance area. But I overestimated the profit and stop loss distances on the options charts. You will see what I mean in a moment.

After taking a short entry at a resistance, price struggled to move higher and made a move down. At first, I thought the option price would be around this level when the price comes down near the support level. But I overestimated the profit and stop loss targets by a long shot. So I manually closed the trade when the price touched the support area.

We waited for the price to come up, then we took a short position near the resistance area of the range, and when the price made a move down towards the support area, the profit was booked! This will be another green day of this month. I still have two trades running, so let’s see how long we can keep up this winning streak. One of them has a good chance of making a loss. If you want to see what strategies I used to get a high win rate, and to see win rates of trading strategies that we tested 100 times, Subscribe to the Trading Rush Channel and ring the notification bell. After all, you don’t want to risk your hard earned money on a trading strategy that doesn’t even work.

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Day Trading | When Trading Indicators Lie…

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date February 8, 2021

day trading indicators 212

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Do you want a high win rate in day trading? Strategies like the MACD trading strategy got very high win rates when we tested them 100 times. But if you want to really make money in trading, you should not take every MACD or any other entry signal, especially when the market looks similar to the one I’m about to show you. What do you see on this chart? Price is in an uptrend? If the price is going up, should you take a long position as a day trader? In this video, I’m going to show you how and why I went in the opposite direction of the MACD and VWAP indicator, and how price made a move exactly how I anticipated. If you don’t know much about the VWAP trading strategy and MACD strategy that we tested 100 times, check out the MACD and VWAP videos on the Trading Rush Channel.

On this daily chart, price is in an uptrend. And for the last 4 days, the price has opened with a gap up, and closed higher. This means that there is a lot of buying pressure. But if you have been trading for a while, you already know that price does not make a big move every single day. Unless there is an event, the probability of price making a big move in one direction is really low. In a day, price moves a certain amount. On this chart, there was an event on this day, and a big candle was formed. But if you look at other daily candles, they move approximately 200 points up or down. In other words, price usually makes a move between 100 and 250 points approximately in a single day. Today, the price opened with a gap up. Furthermore, the distance of the gap was around 140 points. Also, on this chart, the 15000 mark was a resistance area. Yesterday, the opening price was around 14950, and the closing price was around 14924. And at one point, it touched the 15000 resistance mark. When the price made a move near the 15000 mark, the selling pressure was increased and the price made a move down. But today, the asset opened above the resistance level. If you have watched the How I got 70 percent win rate in Trading Video, you know that price breaking the resistance level can be a big deal. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, check out that video on the Trading Rush Channel.

After the gap open, price made a move up. It made an upward move of around 50 points. But you remember, earlier we saw that price opened with a gap of approximately 140 points, and in a day, price makes a move of around 200 points on average. So right now, there is a good chance that the price is near the top of this upward move. But taking trades blindly using this information is a stupid idea. In the last video, I said I have won 7 out of 10 days in the month of January. In this month, I have had another 3 green days, with 2 trades still running. Since I trade options mostly, while analysing the option chain data to adjust the two running trades, I noticed that the long positions have increased on the 15000 and 15100 level. In other words, many people are expecting the price to stay above the 15000 and 15100 level. After doing option chain analysis, I noticed that the 15150 was a resistance area. I’m going to explain how to find support and resistance levels, and how to analyse the price movement with the option chain in a future video. So maybe subscribe to the Trading Rush Channel and Ring the notification bell to see that. Since the price is already at the high of its average range, I was expecting for the price to reverse from around the 15150 mark, and close somewhere around 15100. Since the price was trading around the 15110 mark, I waited for the price to go near the 15150 resistance. If you watched the MACD trading strategy video, you will notice that MACD is already giving an entry signal. But like I said, since the 15100 price mark will act as a support, selling on the support is a bad idea.

If we fast forward a bit more, you will notice that the 15100 level is acting as a support level. Furthermore, price is now moving in a range. Now, in one of the MACD videos, I explained how the MACD is calculated using a cat example. If you have watched that MACD video, you will probably notice that, similar to the cat, price is losing its strength to move higher. After a couple of minutes later, the price was still in a range. Since we already knew the 15100 level was a support, we didn’t take the MACD signal when the price was near the support. But if you look at the MACD signal now, you will notice that it is about to give a long entry signal. But taking a trade using an indicator like MACD right now, is a really bad idea. The reason is simple, MACD is a momentum indicator, and right now price is in a range. Trend Following trading strategies will give false entry signals in a range. But since price was in a range for a while, the 15100 level will act as a strong support now. And if price breaks below it, or in other words, if the price gives a breakout below the strong support level, there will be a good selling pressure.

At first, I was waiting for the price to come up near the resistance. But when price broke below the strong support level, the short entry was on a call option. Since most viewers of this channel are Forex traders, I won’t go into detail on how stock options work. Just remember that this call option will move similar to this. I wanted to set the stop loss right here, but since the price was near the V WAP line, the stop loss was set above the swing high. If price moves higher from the VWAP line, the stop loss is far away.

Right now, we are taking trade in the opposite direction of two indicators. First is the MACD indicator, and second is the VWAP indicator. MACD indicator can show a buy signal, but since price was in a range, this buy won’t be valid. And since price has broken from a strong support, I’m expecting the option price to cross below the VWAP line. If the price moves higher after an increase in buying near the V WAP line, the stop loss is set far away. And since the 15050 was a weak support according to the option chain analysis, and the price opened near that level, it can act as a good support area. So the profit target was set above it.

And if we fast forward a bit, you will see that price made a good move down after breaking the 15100 support level. On the options chart, only one green candle was formed near the V WAP line, and the price made a good move down, and the profit target was hit. Furthermore, if we fast forward a bit more, you will see that the price reversed exactly from where we expected it to.

First we saw that on average the price was moving around 200 points up or down in a day. But we didn’t take trades based only on that. We analyzed the potential support and resistance areas using the option chain. Since we found out that the price was near a support, all sell signals were ignored. When price broke below the strong support area, the entry was in the downward direction against the indicators, because we already know that not all indicators work well when the market is moving sideways. And the profit target was set above the next support, and the profit target was hit. Furthermore, the price reversed from the support level and made a move just like we anticipated. This will be another green day of this month. So if you find yourself in a situation, where the chart looks something like this, where the price has already made a good move in the upward direction, and the price is near the top of its daily average range, it is good idea to look at other things before blindly buying at the top of the trend.

That’s all.

Tag: stock market

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