Tag: indicator strategies

Why I Back Test Strategies ONLY 100 Times?

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date July 10, 2020

Indicator Trading Strategy trading rush 100 times tested ATR stop loss 8 income

Tag: indicator strategies

Indicator Trading Probability (IMPORTANT) – Why I Back Test Trading Strategies ONLY 100 Times?
I have tested many different strategies on the Trading Rush Channel, right? Occasionally, someone will ask, Why I only Back test A strategy 100 times, and not 10000 times. They say Testing a strategy only 100 times, won’t show the Win Rate Accurately. Yes, that is true. But we don’t have to test a strategy 10000 times to see if it is a profitable strategy or not. We can do it by testing it only 100 times. And I’m going to prove it, how you can back test a strategy 100 times and start making money.

Remember the Back Tester Feature in the Official Trading Rush App? Well, I have Modified it just for this video. I’m going to use it to prove a point.

In my videos, Once I’m done testing an indicator 100 times, I always say, the win rate of this strategy is approximately this and that. I heavily use the word approximately whenever i talk about the win rate.

That’s because, when testing an indicator strategy 100 times, I’m not trying to show the accurate win rate. I’m trying to be close enough to the actual win rate of a strategy. That’s All we need, to see If that strategy can make money or not.

Let me give you an example.

Lets say, an indicator works 70 percent of the time. In other words, an indicator has a win rate of 70 percent. But we don’t know that yet. If we wanted to know that number accurately, we would have to test that indicator at least 10000 or more times.

But anyone who has been trading for a while, can tell, that testing an indicator strategy 10000 times is a very difficult task to do. It is very time consuming even if you automate the entire back testing process. because it will take more time to learn how to automate the back testing process, and how to code in the first place. It can take days to learn how to code, if you have no background in coding. It only takes 1 hour to back test a strategy 100 times manually. And You can easily find if the strategy works or not by back testing it 100 times.
But why do we want to know the win rate of a trading strategy so accurately? You don’t need to know the probability of an indicator that accurately to make money in trading. All you need to do, is find the approximate Win rate of a strategy. And you can do this by simply testing a strategy 100 times.

It will take these 100 random trades 10000 times. Once it is done taking 100 trades 10000 times, we will see how close we are to the accurate win rate when we back test a strategy 100 times. In other words, we will see what is the probability of being close to the accurate win rate of a trading strategy, if we only Back Test it 100 times.

That’s all. Now you know why I back test strategies only 100 times. There is a high chance that the win rate i will find by testing 100 times, will be very close to the accurate win rate of a strategy. All we need is to find if the strategy is profitable or not. If we find the win rate to be 70 percent after back testing, There is high chance that we are only off by approximately 5 percent above or below the accurate win rate. In other words, there is a very high chance that the strategy is a profitable trading strategy. It takes around 1 hour to back test a strategy 100 times. If we find the profitability of a strategy by testing it 100 times, why waste time by testing it 1000 or 10000 times. What are you going to do by finding the accurate win rate of a strategy, when most of the success in trading is based on psychology of the trader.

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Small Trading Account Challenge 50$ – Part 3

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date July 9, 2020

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So, what happened to the small account challenge? Did I blow up my account, or did I make money again. It’s been two weeks since I started this 50 dollar small account challenge. First week was a profitable week. I was able to grow this small account by over 14 and half percent. Well not exactly 14 percent, because I lost the one pending trade from the last week. So, we made 12 and half percent in the first week. That is a really good return.

In the second week, I didn’t take any trades, because I was working on the Official Trading Rush App. There was a bug in the app that took some time to fix. In simple words, the app was crashing if you reload the videos multiple times in a second. I was able to fix that error today. I have uploaded the app on Play Store, and It will be available to you in the next few days. Google is taking a lot of time to review the app because of the current Pandemic. I will inform you when the app comes online, so you can back test your trading strategy easily using the Back tester feature.

Anyway, After I sent the app for review today, I took 4 trades in the 50 dollar small account.
It took me around 30 minutes to find these 4 trades. I took them on 1 minute time frame, so they can hit the profit or loss targets quickly, and then I can make a video about it, since i didn’t take any trades the entire week.

Out of the 4 trades, I was able to win 3 trades. I was risking 2 percent on a single trade. You should never risk more than 2 percent on a single trade, And if you are a beginner, you should never risk more than 1 percent on a single trade. Otherwise, It will be difficult to handle losing trades that will come in a row.

Most trading strategy can easily have around 10 losses in a row. If you have watched the first part of this 50 dollars small account challenge, I was down more than 20 percent at the beginning. I was able to recover that loss in the next few trades, and was sitting with a 7 and half percent profit in a single day. If I had risked anything around 5 percent on a single trade, I would have lost 50 percent of my account in a single day. This kind of loss can easily affect thinking ability of most new traders. So don’t risk too much on a single trade as a beginner.

I took these 4 trades using the Ichimoku Cloud trading strategy. I have tested this strategy 100 times on this channel to show its real win rate. In that video, we saw that this strategy had a good win rate. If you haven’t watched that video yet, go check it out.

One of the main reason I was using Ichimoku strategy, and not the MACD strategy that I use every time, is because I was looking for quick trades in a strong trending market.

Trading is a probability game. You cannot continuously make money without losing anything.
Maybe I just got lucky and won couple of trades in a row, because on my main Forex account, I rarely make almost 18 percent in a few days. So lets keep our feet on the ground, and hope we don’t blow up this small account when couple of losing trades come in a row.

In this small account challenge, we did not blew up the account, and we did what many traders fail to do, Make money in trading.

I will keep trading on this small account, and will post the new results in the next week. I will probably end this challenge when we reach 100 percent in profit gain. In other words, when we double our investment.

Till then, check out other trading videos on this channel, where we tested MACD and many other strategies 100 times, to see their real win rates. After all, you don’t want to risk your money on a strategy, that doesn’t even work.

Like the video If you liked it.

Subscribe to the Trading Rush Channel.

And don’t forget to ring that notification bell as well,
so you don’t miss any future videos.

Maybe support the channel on Patreon.

Or Maybe Checkout these Cool Merch
that I made for the best traders.

It supports the channel as well.

Thanks!

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Small Trading Account Challenge 50$ – Part 2

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date July 9, 2020

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Tag: indicator strategies

Small Account Challenge Part 2 50$. How to trade small account Forex FAST Trading Strategy and Indicator to grow a Small Trading Account Fast and Easy

So, What happened to the Small Trading Account challenge? Did I blow up my account, Did I lose money, or did I make a lot of money? If you have been following this channel for a while, you know Last week I started a Small Trading account challenge. I started this challenge with not 10000 dollars, not 500, but only 50 dollars. I started this challenge on last Monday, and said I will do a weekly update video on the profit gains. It’s been a week, so it’s time to reveal if I lost money or was i able to make money.

On the First day of the week, you saw I was able to make 7 and half percent profit gain in a single day. Which was a good return on investment. But you should also note that I was trading on a 1 minute time frame. Since i was trading on a 1 minute time frame, I was able to take many trades in a small amount of time. Trading on a shorter time frame grew the small account by 7 and half percent. If I was trading on a bigger time frame, I would have not able to take trades more frequently, to make a good profit in one or few days.

Before, I show the profit of next few days, I just want to say, that I am going to release The official trading rush app in the following week. This App will help you and me, to back test any trading strategy easily. I won’t go into details now, but wanted to mention this, because I was Developing this App the entire week.

I said I was going to take most of the trades on 1 minute time frame to get more opportunities, But I did not get enough time to analyse and take trades on 1 minute time frame. So instead of taking all the trades on 1 minute, I took most of the trades on 15 minutes and 5 minutes time frames. I was developing the Trading Rush App on my main monitor, and was trading this small account on my second monitor.

So, after Monday , I directly took trades on Thursday. No trades on Tuesday, no trades on Wednesday, took trade directly on Thursday.

The first trade I took on Thursday, turned out to be a winner. It was on AUD JPY. Actually, I took another trade before this. It was a mistake really. I made an input error. Instead of deleting 1, and typing 2. I forgot to delete 1, and typed 2. I cancelled this trade as soon as I noticed the error. But i did make a small profit. I am not writing this profit in my excel sheet of course.

So, the AUD JPY trade i took, was on 15 minutes time frame. I drew some strong support and resistance, using the daily, 4 hours, 1 hours, and 30 minutes time frames. Then on 15 minutes, I saw the Price was at a strong resistance. Furthermore, MACD is also showing a crossover.

I wanted to go short on this pair. And I wanted my stop loss, somewhere above the resistance lines. So i used the ATR indicator to set my stop loss at the right place.

There you go. In this small account challenge, we did not blew up the account, and we did what many traders fail to do, Make money in trading.

I will keep trading on this small account, and will post the new results in the next week. I’m not sure, if I will keep taking trades on 15 minutes, or if i will switch to 1 minute, since I still have to publish the Official Trading Rush App later this week. We will see that in the next Small Trading Account challenge video.

Till then, check out other trading videos on this channel, where we tested MACD and many other strategies 100 times, to see their real win rates.

After all, you don’t want to risk your money on a strategy, that doesn’t even work.

Like the video If you liked it.

Subscribe to the Trading Rush Channel.

And don’t forget to ring that notification bell as well,
so you don’t miss any future videos.

Maybe support the channel on Patreon,
to see my Trades and analysis.

Or Maybe Checkout these Cool Merch that I made for the best traders.
It supports the channel as well.

Thanks!

Small Trading Account Challenge 50$ – Part 1

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date July 9, 2020

small account challenge trading challenge Indicator Trading Strategy Ichimoku Cloud trading rush 9 3

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Tag: indicator strategies

Small Account Challenge Part 1 50$. How to trade small account Forex FAST Trading Strategy and Indicator to grow a Small Trading Account Fast and Easy

Can i make money using just 50 dollars? How long will it take to turn 50 dollars into 100 dollars, or maybe even more? Is trading with 50 dollars even possible? Well well well. Starting today, I’m starting a new series on this channel, the small account challenge series. You might have seen some traders on youtube, do similar thing, where they turn a very small amount into a big one.

I’m starting this challenge, with not 1000 dollars, not 500, but only 50 dollars. On this Trading Rush channel, we have tested many different strategies 100 times, to show their real win rate, because no one wants to risk their money on a strategy that doesn’t even work. The goal of this 50 dollars challenge series, not only will be to entertain new traders, but also educate and try to show how many losing trades you can expect in a profitable trading strategy. This series will also try to show the importance of money management and trading psychology.

We will try to set realistic goals, and we will try not to blow up our accounts. We will try to do what 90 percent of trades can’t do. Make money in Trading.

Also, in this 50 dollars challenge series, when i talk about my profit, try to focus on the percentage gain, and not the amount in dollars. Since, I’m starting with only 50, 5 dollars gain, will be a 10 percent profit. 10 percent profit in 1 or few days, is really good. Mutual funds only give around 15 percent profit in an entire year.

so lets see what trades I took using 50 dollars as my starting balance. I started this challenge on Monday. I was only using strategies that We have tested 100 times on this channel. In the first few hours of the challenge, I was trading on 15 min time frame, and was using the MACD strategy. Since we tested that strategy 100 times, and saw it’s real win rate, I was aiming for a win rate of 50 to 55 percent. MACD strategy is one of the best trading strategy out there, so I was hoping to easily get 50 percent win rate. With risk to reward of 1 point 5 to 1, I should be able to make money. And with maximum risk of 2 percent per trade of course.

On 15 min time frame, I won the first trade. But then lost 10 trades in a row. Not one, not 5, but 10 in a row.
This was not really the fault of the MACD strategy. It was my fault. I made a mistake of trading on this small account, like my bigger account. I made the mistake of taking 10 trades on similar Forex pairs, at the same time. Since Forex pairs are related to each other, most of them move in the same direction. For example, if AUD JPY is going down, AUD USD will most likely go down.
When i took 10 trades at the same time, two things could have happened. I could have won most of the 10 trades, or could have lost most of the 10 trades. In this case, I lost.

Then, to recover this loss, I switched from 15 min to 1 min time frame. By switching to a smaller time frame, I can increase the frequency of the trades. In other words, I can take more trades in a shorter amount of time. It was necessary to recover the loss quickly, since i can’t risk more than 2 percent of my account on a single trade. If I risk anything more than 2 percent on a trade, I will have a higher chance of blowing up my small account. And that will be a shame.

Since I was only using one strategy, most of my trades looked very similar. Here’ are some screenshots I took after entering the trades.

I will do a weekly update video of this 50 dollars challenge, and will show you how much money I made in a week, using this 50 dollars. If you want me to make videos on this small account challenge series more frequently, comment below. But, If you are supporting this Trading Rush channel on Patreon, you will get to see the positions of this small account challenge every day. Thanks again for supporting the channel on patreon. You make these videos possible.

Thanks to Thomas Richardson, for becoming the first Patron to support the channel.

See you all in the next video, where we test another trading strategy 100 times, to see its real win rate.

After all, we don’t want to risk our money on a strategy that doesn’t even work.

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