Why?
To see if a low win rate is better than a high win rate strategy.
My Trading bots are divided into two groups
One thousand bots will take a thousand trades with a 75% win rate.
Another thousand will take trades with a 41% win rate.
These charts show their account balances.
The high win rate group is using a 0.5 to 1 reward-risk ratio.
The low win rate group is using a 2 to 1 reward-risk ratio.
With these ratios, both groups have around an 8% edge.
Where did I get these win rate and ratio numbers from?
From the testing videos I did on the Main Trading Rush Channel.
I told the high win rate group to risk 2% of the current account balance per trade.
Group B will use 1% of the account balance per trade.
Then, I made the simulation more realistic.
The win rate drops breakeven when the market becomes bad.
That happens most of the time, just like in real life.
At 100 trades, high win rate low reward group made more than 50% profit.
But Low win rate high reward group made almost 80% profit.
Both had the same maximum loss so far.
But at around 200 trades things changed.
The High win rate low reward took the lead while still keeping the max loss lower.
At 500 trades, high win rate low reward had 240% highest profit.
Low win rate high reward only had 201% profit.
But that’s not what I really want to show you.
Look at the maximum number of losing and winning trades in a row.
Low win rate high reward group lost 28 trades in a row at some point.
But High win rate low reward group only lost 13 in a row.
That’s a big difference.
Low win rate high reward only won 11 trades in a row.
But high win rate low reward won 40 trades in a row.
That’s a big difference again.
The profits made by both high and low win rates were pretty much the same in the end.
Even the highest loss made was pretty much the same.
But there was a massive difference in the losing and winning trades in a row.
Why is this important?
A big losing streak can affect your trading psychology.
Think about it!
The high win rate low reward gave the same profit potential.
But has a way lower probability of a big losing streak.
If you are not getting a big losing streak, then your trading psychology is not getting messed up.
More than 60% of trading success is based on your trading psychology.
With High Win Rate Low Reward, you are making the exact same profit without messing up your psychology.
