I analyzed 100 Breakouts and found fascinating results.
Once I found the best breakout strategy, I took another 100 Trades to find its win rate.
Even your neighbor’s dog knows the range market looks like this.
Some traders like to trade the breakout of this range.
But do you know which pattern out of these 3 is the price more likely to follow next?
I tested this range breakout 100 times and found this.
Out of 100 breakouts, 41% failed immediately.
The price pattern looked like C.
If 41% failed, then 59% won, right?
Absolutely not, because the B pattern occurred 23% of the time.
The price made a small move in the breakout direction but then failed 23% of the time.
If you take trades as soon as there is a breakout, you are more likely to lose money frequently.
That’s because only 36% of the time, the price actually made a good move in the breakout direction.
But then, what is the highest win rate breakout strategy?
Remember the breakout video I made a while ago?
In that video, I shared one of the best breakout strategies I found.
I tested that breakout strategy 100 times.
This time 58% of breakout entries made money.
That’s a win rate jump from 36% to 58%.
58% of the time, the price made a good move in the breakout direction that a 1 to 1 Reward Risk Ratio was easily possible.
What was the breakout strategy that got a 58% approximate win rate?
It was one of the strategies I used back when I was a Price Action Only Trader.
It was one of the first strategies I found that actually worked.
Instead of taking the trade immediately after the breakout, you wait for the price to come back near the breakout area.
If the best candlestick entry patterns I showed in the Trading Rush Price Action Series appear near the breakout area, then and only then you take the breakout direction trade.
I used TradingView’s candlestick pattern indicator to keep the data unbiased during testing.
On the other side of the breakout area goes your stop-loss.
This is one of the strategies that made beginner me profitable.
To know why most breakouts fail and the C pattern occurs, my previous breakout video has a good explanation. Watch that!
That’s All!
