Tag: bitcoin

Tag: bitcoin

Does this Trading Strategy even make money in the Crypto Market? In this video, I’m going to take 100 trades with one of the best trading strategies to find its win rate and to see how much money it can actually make on the world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.

We have tested a lot of trading strategies 100 times till now, but the best trading strategy we have tested on the Trading Rush Channel, was the MACD strategy. This strategy not only got the highest win rate, but the profit graph was also consistently going in the upward direction. Furthermore, it even got the highest score in the reliability category, and everyone who watches Trading Rush most likely knows by now that the reliability score of a trading strategy is more important than the win rate.

But here’s the thing. If the MACD Trading Strategy got the highest win rate out of all the strategies we have tested so far if we test it again on a different but good market structure, it should get a high win rate again, right? Remember, on the Trading Rush Channel, we don’t simply believe a strategy works. Instead, we analyze the real data the strategy produced in the real market and think logically. If data says it makes money, we use it and make money. If the data shows a bad win rate, we simply don’t use it!

In this video, we are going to test two things by taking 100 trades, first, if the Highest Win Rate Strategy we saw on the Trading Rush Channel can also give a similar high win rate on a different market. And the second thing we are going to test is, if the strategy works in the Crypto Market especially on Bitcoin, and how much money you would have made in this year, especially in approximately the last six months with this high win rate trading strategy.

On the world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, the MACD strategy conditions are pretty much the same, except there is one thing different with Bitcoin that can make you lose money quickly. We will learn more about that at the end of the video.

Before we take 100 Trades, here’s how the MACD strategy works on Bitcoin:

Step 1. Buy when the MACD line crosses above the Signal line, below the zero line, only if the entry candle is above the 200 period moving average. Similarly, Sell when the MACD line crosses below the Signal line, above the zero line, only if the entry candle is below the 200 period moving average. If this sounds confusing, I have already made two to three detailed videos on the MACD indicator, the mistakes people make with it, and the best part about it.

Step 2. As you probably noticed, we are using the 200 period moving average to find the trend direction, in other words, it is still a trend trading strategy. In the long setup, set the stop loss below the pullback of the trend. And in the short setup, set the stop loss above the pullback of the trend.

Step 3. Set the profit target 1.5 times the size of the stop loss. This number is not randomly selected. It is the best reward to risk ratio we have found after taking 300 trades.

I tested this MACD strategy 100 Times on the largest cryptocurrency, and here’s what happened, and here are the points you should note.

Number 1. We are testing strategy on the latest market structure, because we are going to trade on the current market structure, and not on some few years old data where the market was slow and ranging and not worth day trading.

If you look at the chart, you can see that when the price was above the moving average, the MACD showed the end of the pullback using the crossover, and many of these trades at the beginning were won. When Bitcoin was in a downtrend, the MACD strategy simply gave good short entry signals and many of those trades were won.

As you can tell, the MACD strategy is not only giving good entry signals like it did when we tested it 100 times on the Forex Market, but the price movement of Bitcoin itself looks very similar to a good Forex price chart. Since the MACD strategy we saw on the Trading Rush channel does one job better than other indicators, show the end of the pullback with high accuracy, it doesn’t matter if it’s Bitcoin or Forex Market, if the price is trending, the MACD strategy will show the end of the pullback with great accuracy.

When we tested the MACD last time, the profit graph looked like this. The price was more consistently moving in the upward direction. And as you can see, on Bitcoin, the profit line in the Trading Rush App is also consistently going in the upward direction.

Also, this profit graph is way better than some of the other ones we have seen so far. For comparison, here is the profit graph of another strategy we tested 100 times, and here’s the profit graph of the MACD strategy. As you can see, MACD’s profit graph looks a lot better in the long run.

In fact, while taking 100 trades, the MACD trading strategy on Bitcoin only lost 3 trades in a row. This means the MACD strategy was just as reliable on Bitcoin as it was on the Forex Market.

But that’s not all. There is another reason the MACD strategy is performing so well on Bitcoin.

You see, when Bitcoin was all over the news for the first time for making this big upward move, the volatility on smaller timeframes was high. In other words, the price was making big moves and not staying at the same place for a longer period of time. After Bitcoin made a move in the downward direction, the volatility was relatively lower and the price was staying in the sideways direction for a longer period of time.

Now the MACD strategy is performing so well in the latest market structure, is because most of the current market structure is making good moves like before. Since the MACD strategy is a trend following strategy, and since the current market structure is making good moves, the MACD strategy that we saw in the very first video on the Trading Rush Channel, is giving a high win rate on Bitcoin just like it did in the Forex Market, and the profit graph is consistently moving in the upward direction.

But there is one important thing you should keep in mind. You see, Bitcoin is still Bitcoin. One time it is going to the moon, and the other time it is crash landing. The price movement of Bitcoin is different than what you see on a good stock, or even in the Forex Market.

When the price movement is good like it is right now, the MACD win rate will be good because the MACD strategy needs a trend. But if the Bitcoin movement slows down like it did last time, and the price starts to stay in a range for longer periods of time, the win rate will be obviously lower because the MACD strategy is not a range market strategy. If the price itself is not moving, you can’t magically make money. But right now the price movement is good, and the MACD trading strategy on Bitcoin is giving a very high win rate even with a high reward risk ratio, and we have the data that proves it!

After 100 trades on the world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, the MACD strategy got an approximate win rate of 62 percent with a 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio. Remember that the reward to risk ratio was 1.5 to 1, so a 62 percent win rate is actually very high. If you want a higher win rate, you can reduce the reward risk ratio to 1, but in the data we saw by taking 300 trades, the 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio was the sweet spot. The MACD strategy performed excellently on Bitcoin, and only lost 3 trades in a row and won 9 trades in a row. And the profit graph consistently went in the upward direction just like we expected!

You can improve the win rate of the strategy even more, by combining it with the high probability strategies I talked about in the Trading Rush Price Action Course. The link is in the description! Also, Support Trading Rush on Patreon, and get to see more In-Depth Trade Analysis with the current best strategies I use. That’s all!

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EMA vs DYNAMIC Moving Average tested 100 TIMES and this happened?

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date May 27, 2021

trading strategies forex day trading stocks momentum McGinley Dynamic 100 times trading rush best top trading strategies

Tag: bitcoin

Is McGinley Dynamic better than a Simple or Exponential Moving Average? Well, I took 100 trades with it to find that out. One of the popular moving average strategies is the 9 and 21-period crossover strategy, and after taking 100 trades with both Exponential and Simple Moving Averages on the Trading Rush Channel, we found out that they are profitable in the long run. But can the McGinley Dynamic moving average perform well or even better, with its unique way of adjusting to the different market conditions?

When taken 100 trades on almost the same market structure, where the Simple and Exponential Moving Average crossover strategies got a profitable win rate, the McGinley Dynamic started with a loss. The profit line then started to move in the sideways direction for a while instead of making a profit as the SMA strategy did.

Wait a minute. Didn’t I say in the McGinley Dynamic video that on timeframes like 30 mins, the McGinley Dynamic is just a half-length Exponential Moving Average.

Well, yes, and that’s exactly why you don’t see the McGinley Dynamic perform similar to the Exponential or SMA strategy.

And because we know McGinley Dynamic is just a half-length Exponential Moving Average on 30 mins, in this video, we are not only testing the McGinley Dynamic strategy but also the Exponential Moving Average Strategy with higher lengths.

In simple words, in the 9 and 21 period McGinley Dynamic moving average crossover strategy, the 9 period McGinley Dynamic, is showing almost the same values as an 18 period Exponential Moving Average, and a 21 period McGinley Dynamic is showing almost the same thing as a 42 period Exponential Moving Average. You can check out the previous video to learn more.

If you have been trading for a while, you can tell that a longer period moving average will react to price slower, than a faster period moving average. Because of this, McGinley Dynamic didn’t give entry signals where the Exponential Moving Average did and won. However, McGinley Dynamic also gave fewer false signals in a row in some cases, compared to the Exponential Moving Average Crossover Strategy.

But after 100 Trades, the McGinley Dynamic Trading Strategy got a 43 percent approximate win rate with a 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio. The same strategy, but with Exponential Moving Average and Simple Moving Average, got 47 and 48 percent approximate win rates respectively.

So in the long run, the 9 and 21 period EMA strategy that many traders use, is still better than the McGinley Dynamic, or in other words, better than the 18 and 42 period Exponential Moving Average crossover trading strategy.

4.2+7.4+4+4+4.5

The McGinley Dynamic Crossover Strategy gets a TR Score of 24.1 out of 50, and ranks 27th from the top, below the Hull Moving Average with SMA strategy, and above the Fisher Transform Trading Strategy.

That’s all.

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McGinley Dynamic Indicator is a LIE!! How to actually use McGinley Dynamic Trading Strategy

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date May 26, 2021
1 Comment on McGinley Dynamic Indicator is a LIE!! How to actually use McGinley Dynamic Trading Strategy

trading strategies forex day trading stocks momentum McGinley Dynamic trading rush best top trading strategies

Tag: bitcoin

This is one of the most interesting indicators I have seen so far. Because watch this. This is a normal 50 period exponential moving average, you have most likely seen it multiple times before, but if I add a 50 period McGinley Dynamic moving average, still nothing interesting happens. One is just slower than the other. Usually, moving averages other than the simple and exponential moving averages, claim to be faster and reduce lag. But when put to the test, most of them are not even worth using. The only moving average that actually improved the win rate of a strategy in the long run, was the Weighted Moving Average we saw on the Trading Rush Channel. Removing lag from the moving average is not always a good idea, because most of the time it won’t magically make your strategy better. The McGinley Dynamic, on the other hand, is not like the other moving averages that claim to reduce lag. Instead, it claims to reduce lag by adjusting to the speed of the price movement.

It gets interesting. In a normal exponential moving average, it will calculate the average the same way in the range market, when the price is trending, and when the price makes sudden big moves. This can be a bad thing in some cases, especially when the price makes sudden big moves. But the McGinley Dynamic on the other hand will take this into account, and will adjust to ranging, trending, and sudden price movements.

But here’s the twist, if you plot the 50 period normal exponential moving average, and a 50 period McGinley Dynamic moving average on a timeframe like 30 mins, they will look different at first glance, but if you double the length of the normal exponential moving average, or in other words, if you set the length of the exponential moving average to two times the length of the McGinley Dynamic, you will notice something interesting.

The 100 period normal Exponential Moving Average, is almost exactly the same as the 50 period McGinley Dynamic moving average. Does this mean McGinley Dynamic is just a lie and showing almost exactly the same thing as a double-length normal Exponential Moving Average?

Well, yes, but actually no!

First, I applied a normal 100 period Exponential Moving Average, and a 50 period McGinley Dynamic moving average on a 30 mins Forex Chart, and they both looked almost exactly the same on TradingView. But remember what I said earlier, this indicator claims to adjust to the range, trending, and sudden market movements. So one of the first thoughts would be that 30 mins chart doesn’t have a lot of big sudden moves, maybe that’s why it is not that different. But when applied on a 1 min Forex chart, there is still not a lot of difference. And it’s not just the case with 50 and 100 period moving average. You can use any length McGinley Dynamic moving average, and an Exponential Moving Average with twice the length of the McGinley Dynamic will look exactly the same on the smaller Forex timeframes.

Even on a stock chart, where the prices open with huge gaps, the two moving averages looked almost exactly the same even on 1 min timeframe. However, this time, there was a small difference between the Exponential and McGinley Dynamic at some points.

You see, many traders call the McGinley Dynamic a better moving average, but on timeframes 4h and lower on the Forex Market, the McGinley Dynamic and a double-length Exponential Moving Average look almost exactly the same. On the other hand, in the stock market, on timeframes 30 mins and lower, there is almost no difference between a McGinley Dynamic and a double-length Exponential Moving Average. You will see occasional gaps between the two moving averages, but there are not significant to call the McGinley Dynamic special or better.

However, the biggest difference is easily noticeable, and where the McGinley Dynamic indicator shines, is on the Daily and higher timeframes. On the daily timeframe, the McGinley Dynamic does adjust to the ranging, trending, and sudden price movements.

So, if you want a moving average that adjusts to the speed of the price movement, use McGinley Dynamic, but only on the higher timeframes like Daily. Otherwise, you are better off with a double-length normal Exponential Moving Average on smaller timeframes.

We will take 100 Trades with the McGinley Dynamic moving average in the next video, to compare it with the other moving average strategies we have tested 100 times on the Trading Rush Channel so far. That’s all.

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I took 200 TRADES with the RVI Trading Strategies and Here’s What Happened…

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date May 25, 2021
1 Comment on I took 200 TRADES with the RVI Trading Strategies and Here’s What Happened…

trading strategies forex day trading stocks momentum RVI relative Vigor Index 100 times trading rush best top trading strategies

Tag: bitcoin

Does the RVI Trading Strategy even work? This time, I took 200 Trades with the RVI indicator to see if it is better than other strategies we have tested so far. Since there are two widely used RVI Strategies as we saw in the RVI strategy video, I took 100 trades with the RVI strategy that gives signals when the pullback is big, and then another 100 trades with another one that focuses on the strong trends. Here’s what happened.

With the RVI strategy that gives entry signals when the pullback is big, the profit graph went in the upward direction till the first 20 or so trades, but many times the RVI indicator gave crossovers a bit early than the actual pullback, leading to one or two false signals just before the winning trade. This made the profit line go in the sideways direction for a while, and then at one point, the RVI indicator gave too many false signals in a row, and the profit line took a dive near the end. This deeper pullback RVI strategy, or in other words, when I took long RVI signals when the crossovers were below the zero line, and vice versa, the RVI strategy got a breakeven percentage. It didn’t make or lose money.

But when I took long RVI crossovers above the zero line, and short crossovers below the zero line, the profit graph looked very similar to the first strategy at the beginning. This one also won multiple trades in a row till the first 20 or so trades, and then the profit graph went in the sideways direction. But this time, the profit graph didn’t go in the downward direction as it did with the first strategy.

Both RVI strategies had their unique advantages and disadvantages. The first one was not giving entry signal at the top of the trend, but the second RVI strategy was, leading to false signals in the long run. The second strategy was not giving entry signals when the pullback was big, leading to fewer false signals when the trend was changing direction, whereas the first strategy was.

After 200 Trades, the RVI strategy where long signals were taken below the zero line, got a 40 percent approximate win rate with a 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio. And the RVI strategy where long signals were taken above the zero line, got a 45 percent approximate win rate.

As we can see from the profit graph when the trend is strong, both strategies make money, but in the long run, the second RVI strategy is a bit better than the first one. When another good trend shows up, the profit line with the second strategy has more probability of going in the upward direction and staying there, while the first one has a decent chance of giving back the profit.

4+7.3+4+4+4

The first RVI strategy gets a TR Score of 23.3 out of 50 and ranks 30th from the top.

5+7.3+4+4+5

On the other hand, the second RVI strategy gets a TR Score of 25.3 out of 50 and ranks 23rd from the top.

That’s all.

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Simple RVI Trading Strategy for trading the strong trends

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date May 24, 2021

trading strategies forex day trading stocks momentum RVI relative Vigor Index trading rush best top trading strategies

Tag: bitcoin

Even your neighbor Bill knows that in an uptrend, the price closes higher than the opening price, and in a downtrend, closes lower than the opening price. This RVI Indicator, or Relative Vigor Index, is a momentum indicator and is based on the higher probability of price closing higher, than where it opened in an uptrend, and closing lower than where it opened in a downtrend. That’s good and all, but what’s the point of using the RVI indicator? Even though RVI looks like a Stochastic Indicator at first glance, it does not have the upper and lower bands. Instead, it oscillates around the zero line. When the RVI line is above its zero line, it’s an uptrend. And when the RVI line crosses below the zero line, it’s a downtrend.

But since the RVI line oscillates around the zero line, the Relative Vigor Index generates two different kinds of entry signals.

You see, in a strong uptrend, the price makes a move in the upward direction, then slows down a little, and makes a strong move in the upward direction again. In one of the widely used RVI strategies, you buy when the RVI line crosses above the signal line, only if the crossover is above the zero line. That makes sense because the RVI line above the zero line indicates an uptrend. But this strategy is only good if the price is really in a strong uptrend because when you buy at the RVI crossover above the zero line, you will most likely buy near the top of the trend. This makes the RVI strategy better for catching the small moves in the direction of the strong trends. Otherwise, buying at the top will lead to unnecessary losses in the long run.

But many people who are subscribed to the Trading Rush Channel, don’t like to buy, at the top of the uptrend. Many traders, especially those who are using strategies like the MACD are buying when the pullback is big, so the price has enough room to move in the upward direction before reaching the swing high resistance, and resulting in a higher probability of winning in the long run.

To only buy when the pullback is big, many traders buy when the RVI line crosses above the signal line, below the zero line. Remember, the RVI indicator is used to find the short term trend direction, and not the long term trend, But when you use a longer period moving average like the 200 Exponential Moving Average to find the trend direction, the price above the 200 period moving average, and the RVI below the zero line, indicates a temporary downward momentum in a long term uptrend.

When the RVI value is below the zero line, a Long RVI crossover indicates a potential end of the pullback and a signal to buy.

The short setup is just the opposite of the long setup. And in both the first and second RVI strategies, the stoploss can be set using the pullback of the trend.

To find the win rate of the RVI Trading Strategy, we will have to test it 100 Times in the next video.

That’s all.

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I combined MACD with Supertrend 100 TIMES and this is what happened…

Post author By Trading Rush
Post date May 23, 2021
1 Comment on I combined MACD with Supertrend 100 TIMES and this is what happened…

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