opposite Archives - Trading Rush

In this video I am going to take 100 trades against the trend! When you buy at the long MACD crossover in an uptrend, most of you know you are going to have a 60 percent approximate win rate. But one of you asked to flipped that strategy to see what happens. So now we take long MACD signals in a downtrend and short MACD signals in an uptrend. What will be the win rate of this flipped strategy? Let’s find out!

The first two trades are lost, but the MACD indicator showed the reversal point quite accurately, but the downward momentum was not strong enough. This is because we are breaking one of the most important rules in trading, “Don’t trade against the trend”. But let’s see what happens if we dare to go against the trend.

Surprisingly the Flipped MACD Strategy is still winning a decent amount of trades. It loses multiple trades in a row when the price is trending, and then wins a couple of trades at the end of the trends. In the range market, it gives better entry signals than some of the worst trading strategies we have tested 100 times.

If this flipped MACD strategy can get a 40 or higher win rate, it will be better than the worst strategy that actually gives entry signals in the direction of the trend. Interestingly, the worst strategy we have tested is the MACD Zero Lag. That strategy only got a 33 percent approximate win rate.

Since we are trading against the trend, you might think that the win rate will be lower than breakeven, which in this case is 40 percent because of the 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio, but interestingly the MACD was showing the end of the upward and downward moves quite accurately. Many times the price did not touch the profit target because of the stronger pressure in the direction of the trend, but the Flipped MACD strategy managed to win multiple trades at the end of the trends.

So if you take trades in the opposite direction of the trend with one of the best trading strategies we saw on the Trading Rush Channel, you most likely will get a breakeven percentage, because the Flipped MACD didn’t make or lose any money after 100 trades. That’s all!

Get App

Patreon

YouTube

Tag: opposite

What will happen if you take trades in the opposite direction? Will you make more money? Lets say, there is a trading strategy that doesn’t have good win rate. Like the Basic Aroon Strategy we tested 100 times in the last video. Since that strategy only produced a win rate of approximately 40 percent, one of the top comments on that video, was to test it again, but by taking trades in the opposite direction of the strategy. Surely the 40 percent win rate will turn into 60 percent, right? Well, why don’t we find out.

In this video, I took 100 trades in the opposite direction of the Aroon Trading Strategy, and here’s what happened. I’m not going to explain the strategy in this video again, since YouTube will think I’m repeating stuff again. But if you want to learn more about the aroon indicator, watch my previous video on the Trading Rush channel.

In my Aroon video, since I used the Parabolic Sar indicator to set the stoploss, the parabolic sar when taking opposite trades, will be on the opposite side. Let me explain. In the proper aroon setup, when aroon gives a buy entry signal, the parabolic sar is below the price. In this setup, we can easily set the stoploss at the parabolic sar. But if you are trying to take opposite trades, the parabolic sar is on the opposite side. So to fix this problem, I have simply set the stoploss at the same distance in the opposite side, as I would set it in a normal aroon setup.

As always, I have used the Official Trading Rush App for backtesting, and while the backtesting clip is running, here are some important points I found by taking opposite trades.

Number 1. I took trades on the same pair, and on the same time frame. Since I bought when aroon said go short, and sold when aroon said go long, I lost most of the trades that I had won with proper aroon setup. That’s predictable, but here’s the interesting part.

Number 2. You might think, that since I lost the trade I had won last time, the lost trades in the last video will be profitable this time. Well, yes, but no. In my last video, I said, I lost most of the trades because Aroon was giving entry signals near the end of the trends. When I took opposite trades, the trades I lost in the last video were profitable. But not all of them.

You see, when a trend comes to an end, the price doesn’t make a big move in the opposite direction immediately. It can simply go sideways before going in the opposite direction.

I always backtest with the reward risk ratio that is more than 1, since most traders will use something that is greater than 1. What this means is, the price has to make a bigger move in the direction of our entry. Some of the trades I lost in the previous aroon video were profitable this time, because price had made a big move in the entry direction. But sometimes, the price was moving side ways. And since I had a reward risk ratio of higher than 1, in the sideways market, my stoploss was hit before the profit target.

So, after taking trades 100 times with opposite aroon trading strategy, I still got the win rate of approximately 39 percent. The proper Aroon strategy had win rate of approximately 40 percent. This strategy is also a hit or miss. The profit graphs of both of these strategies also look very similar if we flip it upside down.

So what did we learn from this experiment? Something I have said in one of my previous videos. Most of the time, price is in a range. And most money is made, when the price is trending. So you can’t simply take trades in the opposite direction of a not good strategy, and turn it into a money making machine.

That’s all. Now you know a little bit more. Like the video if you liked it. Subscribe for more trading videos, and to see other strategies and indicators tested 100 times. Download the Trading Rush App if you want to test your strategy. Thanks for watching, and special thanks to the amazing people who support the Trading Rush Channel on Patreon. You make these videos possible.