What do you think will happen if you take trades in the opposite direction of a trading strategy?
Well, I took 200 trades to find out.
And because I had nothing better to do.
You see, a while back, I made a video on the Aroon indicator strategy.
It gave a low 40% win rate.
What a shame.
So, one of you asked, if we take trades in the opposite direction when the Aroon indicator gives an entry point.
Will the win rate also become opposite, like 60%?
Even Einstein was scared by this logic!
But then I made a video testing opposite trades like that, and the win rate stayed pretty much the same.
It meant that we simply can’t flip the win rate like a magic trick.
Looks like logic doesn’t work in the market.
It got around a 40% win rate because I tested with a 1.5 to 1 reward risk ratio, and 40% is the breakeven point of that ratio.
But that was in a mostly good market where the price was mostly trending, with a little bit of range and bad movement in between.

But what will happen if I take opposite trades in an extremely good market?
I mean, I have taken trades with the Aroon indicator in the extremely good market as well.
Here, it gave a very high 64% win rate with the 1.5-to-1 reward-risk ratio.
A rare sighting of success.
But what will happen to the high win rate if I take opposite trades in an extremely good market?
On top of that, what will happen if I take another 100 opposite trades in an extremely bad market?
It doesn’t sound like it will end well.
But I have tested the Aroon indicator in the bad market as well, where the price was choppy and ranging.
There, it had a win rate around the breakeven point too.
Interesting stuff.
But with opposite trades, will this low win rate become high even in the bad market, or will it stay the same, or will it go even lower because the market conditions are bad?
Prepare to be mildly surprised!
But if you are wondering what in the world the Aroon indicator even is, well, it looks something like this.

I have made a video where I tested it, explained what rules I used to test, where I tested it, and more.
You can check that video out if you want to learn about this indicator.

But In this video, I mainly want to focus on what will happen if I take opposite trades in the extremely good market and the extremely bad market.
So first, I took 100 trades in an extremely trending market, and this is what happened.
Let the disappointment begin.
Do you remember the high 64% win rate the aroon indicator got in the extremely good market?
Well, this time, the profit graph started to move down like it was a crash.
It lost like 11 trades in a row.
A complete disaster.
And overall, the win rate and other testing results were actually opposite.
I mean, the win rate straight up went from 64% to 20% in the extremely good market.
Impressively terrible!
The profit graph was moving up strongly in the previous good market test. But this time,
The profit graph is moving in the downward direction so fast it will blow up your account pretty quickly if you take opposite trades like this.
A very efficient way to delete money.
But what will happen to the win rate if I take opposite trades in the extremely bad market, where the price is not trending, is choppy, and is overall bad for a trend strategy?
Well, the profit graph started doing an up-down, up-down movement at pretty much the same place.
And overall, it moved in a sideways direction.
It won around five trades in a row and lost around six trades in a row.
Going absolutely nowhere.
Last time, the win rate in the bad market with the Aroon indicator was around the breakeven 40% point.
And this time as well, the win rate was around the 40% breakeven point.
How incredibly average.
The profit graph was not moving in a downtrend like it was in the extremely good market.
So, in the mostly good trending market, taking opposite trades will not increase the win rate of a bad strategy.
Shocking, I know.

In the extremely good trending market, taking opposite trades flipped the win rate completely.
It is way worse than the breakeven win rate.
You will straight up blow up your account in the good market with opposite trading.
I’m starting to think my neighbour trades like this.
This happened because we basically took short trades in an extremely strong uptrend.
Which is generally considered unwise.
Yep, definitely my neighbour’s strategy.
In the extremely bad market, taking opposite trades didn’t give a worse result.
The win rate still stayed around the breakeven point.
It didn’t fail, it just didn’t matter.
In the mostly trending market and an extremely bad ranging market, taking opposite trades will not make or lose money in the long run.
In the extremely good trending market, taking opposite trades is a really bad idea.
To show you how bad of an idea it is, let’s give it a TR score or the Trading Rush score, and compare it with other trading strategies we have tested so far.
In the mostly good market, the opposite trades had a 4 out of 10 score in the win rate category.
And overall, it had a breakeven score.
The total TR score was 19.8.
That’s barely anything.
For comparison, the highest TR score in the mostly good market is 38.8.
In the extremely bad market, since opposite trading had a breakeven win rate as well, it gets a 4 out of 10 in most categories.
The total score is 19.8.

A 19.8 score is actually the highest score in the extremely bad market.
That’s because most trading strategies made a continuous loss in the bad market.
Opposite trading, with its breakeven win rate, did better than most other popular trading strategies we have tested so far in the bad market.
The bar is incredibly low here.
But in the extremely good market, things get even more interesting.
Since the opposite trading style got a very low 20% win rate.
It gets a 2 out of 10 score in the win rate category.
Pity points included.
That’s just sad.

For comparison, the highest score in this category is 9 out of 10.
So a 2 out of 10 score is a really low score.
In the reliability and the quality of trades, it gets a 2 out of 10 score.
Since it didn’t make money, it gets a 0 out of 10 score in the Consistency of Profits category.
It earned exactly what it deserved.
The total TR score in the extremely good market is 12.8.
This is a worse score than all the strategies we have ever tested!

An achievement in failure!
So that’s what happens when you take opposite trades in different market conditions.
Overall, there is no point in taking opposite trades in any market condition.
Your win rate will not get better, it can become worse instead, like a magic trick!
Abracadabra!