How Lucky Can You Get In Trading?
I made 10000 trading bots take 1000 trades, and this happened…
I was bored.
So I created ten thousand trading bots.
And then I made them trade at the same time.
Why would I do such a silly thing?
To see how lucky you can get in trading.
Why, you ask?
Thousands of people start trading every day.
Some of them make crazy high returns.
Then they sell thousands of dollars of trading courses to you.
But how many do you think just got lucky?
How much money can luck in trading make?
That’s what I’m going to find out.
This is the start button of my trading simulator.
It makes 10,000 trading bots take 1000 trades.
The win rate is 50%.
Reward Risk Ratio is 1 to 1, perfectly balanced as all things should be.
This chart shows the account balances of 10,000 people, I mean trading bots.
I gave them 10,000 dollars each. They were asking for more, but I said no.
These captured people, I mean trading bots, will risk 1% of the current account per trade.
Look how a 50% win rate makes this oddly satisfying pattern in the account balance.
This didn’t last long because some people started to get lucky.
Look at this highest profit reached number.
It says 69. Some nice guy has made 69% profit in just 200 trades.
Look at this another chart I made.
It shows how many people are making what profit.
Most are right around zero percent profit.
But some lucky beeeep are making up to seventy-eight percent profit.
It just went above 100%.
That’s still with a 1% risk of the current account!
Now someone went above 150% profit!
That’s more than what my neighbor made with Bitcoin.
Some idiot has lost 60% of the account.
But No one has blown up the account yet.
Congrats! 1000 trades have been reached.
Most people made around 0 percent profit.
But a few Lucky beeeeps made more than 200% profit.
That’s crazy! Look how far he is from the average!
This was with a 50% win rate random trades and a 1 to 1 reward risk ratio.
But some people got lucky enough to end up with big profits.
Since the win rate is 50%, everyone will go back to 0% profit in the long run.
But this experiment was with 1000 trades.
If someone takes 1 trade a day, that’s around 2.7 years worth of trades.
Some lucky beeeep is going to make a 200% profit based on complete luck and then will not realize it for more than 3 years.
They will definitely sell you 1000 dollars of courses, though.
Moral of the story?
Don’t always believe someone who has only been profitable for a few years.
No matter what your motivational guru says, don’t completely believe you are profitable for the first few years of profitability. You might be that lucky beeeep.
If you want to be more confident, use strategies that are tested many times.
And even in this experiment, money management was the king! None of the 10,000 captured people blew up the account.
Test them enough to make sure it’s not just luck!