When I started trading around 8 years ago, I heard many horrible trading advice.

They even made me blow up trading accounts multiple times.

Trading gurus said to aim for bigger profits than the loss.

Their trade setup used to look something like this.

A big profit potential and a small stop loss.

They are still giving this horrible trading advice, by the way.

I literally went to a trading guru’s website, who charges 7 thousand dollars for basic freely available trading knowledge, and the first example setup he trades was like this.

A big profit target and a small stop-loss.

But when I tried aiming for bigger profits like the trading guru, I lost money almost every time.

Sure, I was a noob back then.

But I can prove to you that this is horrible trading advice.

How, you ask?

I spent the last 200 hours creating the Trading Rush Analyzer tool, which is based on more than a hundred thousand trades and probability data.

No crappy opinion of trading gurus, we will look at the data directly.

I’m going to put the trading guru’s advice in the tr Risk Analyzer section and see what happens.

Let’s say our account size is 10000.

I’m going to put the risk as 1% of the account, which in this case is 100.

The 7 thousand dollars course trading guru set the profit target 5 times bigger than his stoploss.

So I’m going to follow his advice and aim for 5 times more profit as well, which in this case is 500.

Now, what do you think the win rate of trading something like this is?

I mean, when I started trading, I didn’t know.

When I saw a trading guru share a strategy with these big profit targets, I just followed it without thinking much.

I bet many beginner traders don’t know the win rate of their strategy either.

So let’s guess it’s 50%.

And then press Analyze.

Nope, TR Risk Analyzer says the win rate expectations are too high.

So, let’s lower the win rate to 40%.

And analyze again.

Nope, our expectations are still too high.

If I put a 30% win rate, it says it’s possible, but it is on the higher end.

Basically, only experienced traders can maintain a win rate on the higher end of what’s possible in the long run.

For a beginner trader, that’s not likely to happen.

So, let’s lower the win rate to 25%.

And hit analyze.

Now it says our win rate expectations are okay or realistic with our profit and stoploss goals.

But look at the other boxes.

Normally, if we trade like the trading guru, we can expect to lose around 35 trades in a row.

And a small chance of losing around 61 trades in a row.

Are you crazy?

These trading gurus want beginner traders to lose 35 trades in a row, especially when we can’t handle losing multiple times in a row.

Not only that, look at the number of winning trades in a row.

It says around 4.

The trading guru wants beginner traders to only win 4 trades in a row.

So, basically, the guru wants us to lose most of the time.

Look at the other boxes.

If we set profit and stoploss targets like the trading guru, and maintain a 25% profitable win rate all the time, then the probability of getting a drawdown is around 75%.

Drawdown basically means when your total profit goes down from the peak.

With the guru’s big hippo-sized profit targets, that will happen around 75% of the time.

And on top of that, we will probably spend around 83% of our time recovering the loss.

So the trading guru not only wants us to make a loss most of the time, but also wants us to spend more than 80% of our time recovering losses?

But wait, the other box says, if we maintain a 25% win rate all the time, then we can expect the average drawdown to be around 14%, and a small chance of losing 30%.

Actually, that’s not bad.

But what kind of beginner trader maintains a profitable win rate all the time?

If experienced traders can’t maintain a profitable win rate all the time, then someone who has just started trading definitely can’t.

So, normally, when we can’t continuously maintain a profitable win rate, we will be in a drawdown more than 80% of the time, and spend 98% of our time just recovering the loss.

Not only that, if a drawdown happens when we are sucking at maintaining a good win rate, we can easily lose around 85% of our account.

That is crazy.

Imagine losing 85% of the account because a trading guru told you to set bigger profits.

Look at the other box.

It says there is around a 65% chance of losing the entire trading account if we can’t maintain the 25% win rate all the time.

But here’s a more important thing.

If a beginner trader just lost 35 trades in a row, or around 85% of the account, I don’t think they are still going to follow money management and other strategy rules.

They are going to revenge trade.

The losing trades are going to affect their trading psychology.

They will try to recover that lost profit by taking bigger risks.

I did all this when I was a beginner 8 years ago.

So, if a beginner trader follows these trading gurus’ advice, the probability of losing their entire hard-earned money is much higher than one might think!

That’s why aiming for way bigger profits than your loss is horrible trading advice, and yes, it did cost me my hard-earned money.

But after 8 years of trading, I found and tested things that actually work and might be better for beginner traders.

One of the strategies I tested on the Trading Rush channel was the horizontal area support resistance strategy.

Basically, the way I draw support resistance works around 60% of the time with 1 to 1 reward risk ratio.

If 100 risk, then 100 profit.

If we put those strategy details in the Trading Rush Risk Analyzer, then we not only get an okay or realistic expectations, but the number of winning and losing trades in a row are also much better.

Losing streak is not 35 to 60 anymore.

Almost all risks are reduced by around half.

With a 60% win rate, the drawdown chance is almost half of what it was before.

And on top of that, the average drawdown, if it happens, will only be around 5%, with a small chance of 10%.

Before, it was 14% and 30%, respectively.

Even if we can’t maintain a profitable win rate all the time, the probability of getting a drawdown is only 50%.

It was 83% before.

Average drawdown when we suck is 100% this time.

Before, it was 85% and a small chance of 100%.

However, since the probability of getting a drawdown is almost half this time, the total risk is much lower than before.

It can be seen in the first box.

It says the probability of losing the entire trading account even if we suck at maintaining a profitable win rate continuously is only around 31%.

Before, it was 65%.

That’s more than a half reduction in risk.

That’s why in my around 8 years of trading journey, I found much better success with around a 60% win rate that aimed for medium-sized profit targets.

The big hippo-sized profit targets made me blow up multiple trading accounts.

So, which one would you prefer?

Blindly following a trading guru and aiming for too big profit targets that make you easily lose 35 to 60 trades in a row.

Or would you prefer deciding your profit target based on actual data?

Your hard-earned money’s future depends on your choice!